The last minute surge on Friday burn my shorts pretty bad.
If you have been reading my blog for a while, you surely know about the 3% rule.
Basically, support and resistance, IMHO, are not concrete numbers.
Most often there is a rise after broken support or a fall after broken resistance.
Add 3% to the resistance and subtract 3% from the support.
Think of it as squeezing the last drop out of a lemon.
My performance pales in comparison to some bloggers out there with 20%+ return for May. I just wish they have more transparency because I would love to follow.
Some of my picks for May with returns: CLF(9.91%). JASO (14.89%), NG (26.32%), AEM (20.79%).
Sunday, May 31, 2009
The last minute surge on Friday burn my shorts pretty bad.
Posted by Unknown at 8:17 AM
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Good artists copy great artists steal.
Instead of post links here, I will share them from my Google Reader.
May I suggest that you subscribe to them.
Thanks to those who signed up for the FREE Ino products.
I hope you like it.
There are not enough for me to get a pay out; however, I do appreciate the effort.
Posted by Unknown at 6:43 AM
Thursday, May 28, 2009
I am happy to introduce - Maria Louiza Vourou: Greece’s Finest
You know I love to KISS.
But let's be realistic.
Somethings are not as simple as they seem.
I have taken a bath trading leverage ETF because I did not know what I was doing.
I have taken a bath trading options beacause I did not know what I was doing.
Do you like taking baths?
Today, I saw another post simplifying options without The Greeks.
Long, long ago, I did a post on Buy vs Short Stocks and Options here
What's wrong with this picture?
If you cannot tell me what's wrong with the picture, then you should not be trading options.
Posted by Unknown at 7:55 PM
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Why You Can’t Blame Leveraged ETFs
People who do not know WTF they are talking about should STFU, seriously!
People tell me not to be a hater, and what do they do?
Put the hate on leverage ETF. That's called being a hypocrite.
Takes a deep breath. This should calm me down.
Posted by Unknown at 7:01 PM
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
I moved slower than a snail today and it was awful !!!
Anyhow, the market was Eva Green today and you can see right through it.
In school there were prerequisite to hopefully ensure you do not fail miserably in a class in which you are not qualified for.
The same is not true for trading and especially options trading.
In order to truly successful in options trading, you need to understand The Greek.
You can learn Greek here.
I traded options from time to time without fully understanding Greek. I was lucky, but did not know what I was really doing. Don't you do the same thing.
Stay away from anyone who tries to throw you in the pool without knowing if you can hold your breath.
Posted by Unknown at 6:37 PM
Sunday, May 24, 2009
What do you see?
All the stocks have the same pattern listed by most possible percentage gain descending.
S&P 500 possible 17 week cycle
Nah! I am just not going to do it. Too much energy wasted.
Posted by Unknown at 6:21 AM
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Thursday, May 21, 2009
A follow up to my post from yesterday on FUD here.
Today Tom Lydon wrote: Why Leveraged ETFs Aren’t For Everyone here
I think he hit the nail dead on the head.
So why is this post about stupidity?
Let me tell you a true story.
I came to the states with my family on April 27, 1975, 3 days before the fall of Saigon. A very generous family invited our family to spend Thanksgiving with them. Some how, I had heard the word stupid, but did know know what it means. Well at dinner, I was calling the host's son stupid over and over again. Lucky for me, he was gracious. Looking back, I felt stupid because I was using a word I did not know or understand the meaning.
The moral of the story, don't listen to every thing you hear, but learn for yourself.
Posted by Unknown at 6:35 PM
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Same sh*t different sector.
The single most common reason for failure is a lack of practical knowledge - Thomas Kyte.
He also coined the phrase FUD (Fear,Uncertainty,Doubt) and how it encourages you not to learn anything. Does this sound familiar?
I wrote about BeWare of Leverage ETF here and Break Even Point here.
You can watch On-Demand Webinar: Getting Leverage, Going Short here
I will be the first to admit that I did not completely understand leveraged ETF and how it is design to track the daily return of an underlying security. Once you understand that, then you will understand why the instrument behaves the way it does and by design.
If you can answer the question, "If you purchase a security and it drops 50%, then how much gain is required to break even?", then you understand the math behind it.
And yes, you can you TA to trade the instrument.
Look at the charts below.
See my trade in SRS and why I decided to jump in at 19.75 with 35 cents stop.
See how I got stopped out at 20.40.
Do you see some resemblance of a double bottom?
Posted by Unknown at 6:33 PM
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Slay the Dragon Within: And Win
A Special Report
Wall Street Sector Selector
Recent market meltdowns and subsequent rebounds exposed the roles of greed and fear, the herd mentality and human psychology in global stock market action.
Successful investors understand their "humanness" and how to get their emotions to work for them instead of against them.
Greed, Fear and the Herd
Everyone has heard about greed and fear being the two primary driving forces behind investor decisions. And that is true because, while much has been written about markets being rational and investors making rational decisions based on earnings reports, price earnings ratios or technical analysis, the fact is that markets are not rational, as witnessed most recently in 2008's massive selloffs.
Greed and fear were at work.
And this has been seen time and again throughout history.
The Dutch had their tulips, Sir Isaac Newton was wiped out in the South Sea Trading
Company's meltdown in 1720, and we've had our own Black Monday in 1987 and the dot.com boom and bust just a few short years ago.
Greed is simple to understand. People want to make money. But fear is a little more complex in that there are really two types of fear: fear of loss, which we all understand, but also, fear of being left behind.
I believe a key to investment success is learning to control both your greed and your fear, and the solutions are the same for both.
Investors Who Slay the Dragon:
* Don't overtrade. In the search for better results or to limit loss, investors tend to overtrade and so wind up paying too much in commissions or getting whipsawed by short term gyrations of the market.
* Don't take too much risk. Greed causes investors to take too much risk, either through options, leverage or investing in risky companies or by taking positions that are too large to be comfortable.
* Don't go back and look at trades they have sold to see how they "would've done." When a trade is over, it's over. They don't do postmortems to see if they were "right" or 'wrong" about the market.
* Don't sell their winners too soon, unlike most investors who do this and miss out on further gains.
* Don't hang on to their losers too long. Most investors find it's hard to admit they were "wrong" and so lose more than they should or could.
Ego plays a big role here. People want to be right, but "hang on, it'll come back" is not an investment strategy. Just ask anyone who still owns some of the darlings of the dot.com boom and bust.
* Don't do daily mental accounting of how they're doing. They see t heir whole portfolio, not just the rise and fall of individual positions, and they don't keep a score card of their gains/losses. A once per month review is plenty.
* Don't listen to CNBC, CNN, etc. The media are masters of feeding the herd mentality that successful investors avoid.
* Don't log on to their accounts every day or check quotes multiple times per day. They take the long view. They don't talk about their stock picks, winners/losers with friends. They don't follow hot tips. They keep their own counsel.
* Don't put their egos into their trading. Pride in a good trade is as harmful as shame or anger or grief over a bad trade. Some trades will go well. Some trades won't go well. It has nothing to do with the investor's intellect or self worth.
* Find a good plan and stick with it. A great batter in baseball only succeeds four out of ten times at the plate. Investing is a marathon, not a sprint.
Most retail investors lose money in the markets because they let fear and greed, their emotions, interfere with their trading success. In study after study, it has been proven that while average growth funds earn between 11-12% per year, the average investor's returns range from -2.2% to +3% per year, depending on which study you quote.
Why the poor results? Because average investors can't control their emotions and let fear and greed and ego dominate their trading decisions.
While there can never be any guarantee of success, most investors find that understanding fear, greed and the herd mentality and then learning to manage their emotions can lead to better outcomes for their investing activity.
All material herein is believed to be correct but its accuracy is not guaranteed. This article represents solely the opinions of John Nyaradi and readers are encouraged to consult their investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions. All information herein is for general informational purposes only. The information is of an impersonal nature and should not be construed as individualized advice or investment recommendations.
Wall Street Sector Selector
Posted by Unknown at 5:45 AM
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Friday, May 15, 2009
Watch: Love Liz Market Snapshot
Read: Schwab Market Perspective: The Next Steps
Ponder: Thoughts Of The Day
If you are trading and have not learned anything, then I think it is time for you to quit.
Learn to identify the good, the bad, and the liar.
Identify the good so you can follow.
Identify the bad so you can fade.
Identify the liar so you can stay away.
The devil made me do it.
Come back soon for more updates.
Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market? Enough Already
Saturday's Art Of The Chart 5/16/09
Posted by Unknown at 9:41 PM
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Everyone tells you, "Let your winners run and cut your losses quickly."
However, no one tells you, "Easier said that done."
With that said, I could not help but take profit in MTB today.
I did manage to let PSA and AEM ride.
Too many cooks spoil the broth
Last one is is a rotten egg.
Posted by Unknown at 5:38 PM
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Saturday, May 9, 2009
HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY to all the mom.
Guys, go doing something to make here feel special.
I hate doing posts after posts because the original post gets buried.
Here are links to some of the stories I am reading.
I will update this post with more as necessary.
Check back periodically if you are interested in updates.
On Wall Street: Beware of the sucker’s rally
Too little too late. Nothing but stating the obvious.
The sucker is the one who did not participated. I am 1/2 a sucker.
I do apologize about the continuous rant.
The Economic Data Is Better, But...
Here is a view from both sides of the coin.
Bullish Case vs. Bearish Case
Trend Trading For a Living
Quick summary: The moral of the story is to ignore the news, ignore your personal bias, ignore Jim Cramer, ignore CNBC, and just watch the charts.
Rallying For Real
Top Stocks Extended from their Moving Average May 9
Remember Newton's Three Laws of Motion.
Posted by Unknown at 8:52 AM
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
I keep hearing Bear Market Rally (blah, blah, blah)!
Remember that it's darkest before dawn.
Had I filter out the noise and realize this sooner, then I would have been better off.
SP500 broke 875 to the upside.
Even if there is a market sell off, 875 becomes support.
I still play a few short here and there to protect some long positions, e.g. 401k, IRA. It's like the left hand is giving to the right hand. At the same time, I am starting to scale out 401k proportionally as well.
Alert still shows more bullish than bearish technicals.
As the saying goes, "Action speaks louder than words."
Right now, the market action definitely outweighs cheap talk.
I keep telling myself that I will buy on a pullback, but a pullback from where?
For example: if you see a stock run from 20 to 30 and buy on a pull back, where would you buy it at? Let's say it pulls back to 25 and you are willing to buy it. However, it's still 5 points higher from when you first saw it.
This phenomenon is call opportunity cost.
Read that tat.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Great analysis which you can read as well as listen to the audio.
The “green shoots” story gains credibility and adherents
The “great recession” may already be over
Leading indicators aplenty are stabilizing and/or rising
Don’t “sell in May and go away”
Posted by Unknown at 6:21 PM
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Just a little history about me.
My grand parents did not know how to read and write.
My parents were not PhD.
The children, grandchildren, great grandchildren, and great great grandchildren are PhD, Engineers, Doctors, Teachers, Accountants, etc...
I don't want my daughter to be like me, I want her to be better than me.
I will let you make the inference.
I was shown StockFetcher and I am now revisiting again.
Here is the screen:
show stocks where close is above 11
and average volume (30) > 500000
and open > ema(21)
and open > ema(8)
and open > ema(4)
and close < ema(21)
and close < ema(4)
and close < ema(8)
and close < open
and close 3 days ago > ema(21)
and close 5 days ago > close 3 days ago
and draw obv(20)
and draw atr(10)
and add column open
and add column close
and add column ema(4)
and add column ema(8)
and add column ema(21)
and add column atr(10)
and add column industry
and add column sector
It's a possible bearish screen or a possible buying opportunity depending on the market and stock.
Low volume pullback?
I want to thank http://disqus.com/people/jmilez/ and http://disqus.com/people/ShortBusTrader/ for showing me this.
Posted by Unknown at 7:33 AM
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Speaking of friends and foes, if the trend is your friend, then who's your enemy? (Hint: click the ?) It was so funny that I had to share it on the blog.
mea krupa or mea culpa? diamond in the crack or diamond in the rough?