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Friday, October 31, 2008

Don't Care

My blog is called fade-me for a reason.

When asked if I am bullish or bearish, the answer is I don't care.

I trade whatever the trends show me because the trend is my friend.

I was asked about FXP this morning. My answer was that it seems to be detiorating. Buy at 86 if you must, but stop at 84. Now how did I get those numbers, one asked. Take a took at the chart below.

FXP P&F Chart

FXP looks like a buy on the 5 min, but no confirmation on the 60 min.

I will show you what I mean by confirmation for CF chart.
Where would you have bought the stock looking at the chart below?

Where would you have bought the stock looking at the chart below?

Which one paints a better picture?

Everyone is trying to create one's own chart pattern.

Here is one for you.
Where would you put the $$$ on that beauty above and below?

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Bottom Fishing

If you are going fishing, then you need to have bait (cash) and patience (time).

Today the fund closed at $14.16 which is still down from $17.04

That is a lot of work for little gain and I am hoping for 1 step back and 2 steps forward.

You need to be aware that the market trades forward looking and not backward looking. Who does not know about the global recession? Who does not know about bad earnings, lower guidances, and downgrades? Some companies are actually beating earnings.

I am looking to buy a little lower.
MACD just turned negative.
OBV/RSI turning down.
FXP Chart

Did you catch my tweeter feed to low ball FXP at 88? I actually cancelled the trade because of the TA describe above.

This is why you should be careful when following someone because you may end up holding the short end of the stick.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

It's so easy

to make a mistake that is.

I would have missed out on 100++% gain if I had not cancel the order. As I keep on saying, "In this market, sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good."

I wasn't so lucky on this trade. I was scared.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Just the Numbers

7882-Support, the 10/10/08 low
11867-Resistance, the 8/11/08 high
10589-50-day simple moving average
11829-200-day simple moving average

S&P 500:
839-Support, the 10/10/08 low
1313-Resistance, the 8/11/08 high
1154-50-day simple moving average
1295-200-day simple moving average

1542-Support, the 10/10/08 low
2473-Resistance, the 8/15/08 high
2102-50-day simple moving average
2299-200-day simple moving average

Sure we can pull back. As long as it is one step back and two steps forward, then I am all for it.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Some Charts

Don't over stay your welcome.

Click on chart to see full image.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Where's the bottom?

Back in July, I posted CASH is KING where the 401k plan I managed for my wife and her family were at 43.16% cash.

As of yesterday, the account sits at 31.29%

The strategy was to buy every time the market (DOW) tanks 200+ points.

Do you see how dangerous it is to catch a falling knife? I have only used up 12% of the cash reserve; however, some of the purchases are down 20%+

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Monday's Watch List

Engulfing Line (Bullish),
Outside Bar (Bullish),
Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Engulfing Line (Bullish)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Inverted Hammer

SOHU OIH (from TK)

Don't over stay your welcome.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Morbid Thoughts

Made 2 pts on QLD, bought it back and now holding bag with 4 pts decline.

Don't BS me, but how is making money in this market aside from TK and may lisa if she is still holding POT and FSLR short?

With the credit crisis, how will companies be able to implement alternative energy, e.g. solars? Farmers don't even have money to buy bullcrap (fertilizer) to grow their crops.

There are so many fallacies out there. Warren Buffet is buying; therefore, it must be a good thing. He is getting 10% dividend on the prefer. Unless, GS or GE goes bankrupt, 10% return will double his money in 7 years, not to mention any appreciation in the stock and free options to buy more. If you buy something, you need to by BRK. The only problem is how will BRK after WB kicks the bucker?

China is in a mess. Looking back, it made perfect sense. China was building out for the 2008 Olympics; hence, the huge consumptions.

If you chart the QQQQ, in 2000 the high was at 111 and now it is at 32.65. Who's to say SPY or DOW won't be the same way?

Seriously, you don't think investors will be selling in any rally? Just look at today.

You might think I am shitting you. But here is one the the 401k account I managed. Even with 36% cash available and buying every time the DOW drops 200+ points, the account is down 15%. I guess that is not bad considering the funds itself is down close to twice that. All gains in the account are now gone because the account is now negative since inception.