Change

In reviewing my strategies, I realize that I am either extremely bullish or bearish. Instead of being at extremes, it might be more beneficial to be neutral.

My trades were not bad. Even when I was shorting this market, I was making money. It only worsen when I went extremely bearish and started buying leveraged ETF. NO! I don't think leveraged ETF is evil. It's just that my timing was bad and I did not take losses in them when I should.

I had 35 winning trades and 16 losing trades. My performance is mediocre because I sold winners too soon and hold losers too long. Even with the large losses, I am at break even, nothing to brag about.

The pundits out there say that you can never go broke taking profit. While this may be true, you can not have great returns being penny wise and pound foolish. If you wanted to be safe, then you should have been in money market versus the stock market.

Going forward, I will try to be more patience with profit while cutting losses to 5% max.

Honestly, how many trades do you have where you left money on the table and how much was left behind? Do you do any analysis on your performance? Just thoughts to ponder.

RedHot

WSM



CSX

Short Short List

These stocks were down when the market was up.
Keep an eye on them for breakdown or weakness.

STAR

AMZN


There was recommendation to short AMZN and cover on close above 92 from a newsletter.

The Ascent of Money

Click here to go to video page.

Warning: It is long, but is educating.

The Ascent of Money Episode 1: From Bullion to Bubbles

The Ascent of Money Episode 2: Bonds of War

The Ascent of Money Episode 3: Risky Business

No Class and Class

Win with grace, lose with dignity.

Manipulations

I hear complaints about manipulations all the time. Honestly, if you do not realize there are manipulations everywhere, then you need to open your eyes.

Screen of stocks in SP500 with 5 days RSI above 95.


DOW chart. See the gap fill just before January?


Did you see how you might have been manipulated?

Is Hate A Strategy?

Lately, the pundits have been saying that Hope is not a strategy.

Well, is Hate a strategy?

Karl Denninger, called Dennis Kneale an idiot in his post here and stated the following

Finally, on your so-called "Golden Cross"; for it to be valid the 200MA and 50MA must be rising. The 200MA is falling; ergo, it is a false signal.

Conveniently, Karl left out the most important aspect, supporting data.

Well, I just happen to have some.


The Golden Cross occurred around June 23 around 900.

One week later, June 30 SP500 closed at 919.32. (CHECK)

One month later, SP500 will still perform better than the average data. (ANOTHER CHECK)

I just find it ironic that one idiot would call another an idiot.

Trust me, I know how that feel and have posted here.

If I were keeping score, then Karl = 0 and Dennis = 2.

Unfortunately, I was not able to find any specifics on the assertion, i.e. time frame.

However, I will revisit this at the 3mos, 6mos, and 1yr mark.

There seems to be a lot of haters out there, which I don't really understand.

Ka Ching

I had a discussion on twitter about ringing the register and this commercial comes to mind. Notice the cashier was not too excited on the first ring, but got more excited on consequent rings. KA CHING!

How does this relate to trading? Seldom do we think about scaling out of a position. For me, it's not natural unless I have a large position.

I know what you are thinking, but it hit my sell target.

Most have a buy target and keeps buying as the stock goes down. This means the target was wrong.

If you have a sell target and stock stock keeps going up. This means the target is wrong.

Next time when you think about selling, sell 1/3 or 1/2.

If you can watch the market, then there is no reason why you cannot scale out.

Use multiple time frames to detect deterioration in price.

I would start with 2m, 3m, 5m and so forth. Keep in mind the shorter the time frame the more volatility and good chance of getting whipsaw.

All About Exit

First, thanks for those who responded. As long as someone finds this useful, then I am glad to be of service.

There are those who advocates to never look back at your trades.

If that is the case, then I would have to ask, How will you know your mistakes?

The objective is to identify the mistakes and try to avoid making the same mistakes twice.

I purchased BTU on 7/8/2009 at 28.15 and stopped out on 7/14/2009 at 29.9.

Take a closer look at the chart (hand).
Even though BTU close down that day, the EMA crossed over.

10d30m Chart


10d60m Chart


The bottom line, I should have never placed the stop or the stop was too tight.

If you take a look at the 30m and 60m chart, it was all green for 07/14.

If there was a time when I should have sold, it should have been on the 07/10 or 07/13 based on the 30m chart (no green).

As the result, I made a 6% profit versus 24%. I know what you are thinking. A profit is a profit. But do you want to under-perform or over-perform?

Do you know that is a 400% difference in return?

When comparing performance, you cannot use subtraction but must use ratio.

24/6 = 4/1 = 400%.

Imagine for every trade I make, you make 2x as much.
Think about how much better your account would be and think about compounding.

Just a provoking thought.

Today, I sold UNG based on 10d30m. However, the 10d60m is still green.





You need to determine the time frame that works best for you and you're most comfortable with.

I know I have not been very discipline with my trades and will attempt to be more discipline in the future.

FeedBack

If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

I know I don't have may readers; however the few may be, I am still have an interest on who is reading.

Please leave comment or some type of sign, like smoke signal?

Thanks.

Is 3 a Crowd?

I purchased GG on 7/16/2009 at 35.95.


GG Chart1

GG Chart2

GG Chart3

AEM Chart (Not bad looking either)

ABX Chart


There you have it, 3 of the same gold chart or 3 different gold charts.

Gold

TruthLightInk

There's a Vietnamese saying which translates to, "You are what surrounds you."

There is some truth to that as I have mostly been negative in this market. This negativity was because I let the gloom and doom surround me.

One thing I notice is that the market tends to take things to an extreme - extreme pessimism and extreme optimism.

Remember the prediction for $200 oil? Now there is a prediction for $20 oil.



Definitely not a buy according 4-8-21 strategy, but a bottom fishing strategy.

With the exception of volume, TA looks to be improving, Might not be a bad idea to put in 4% trailing stop though.

I came across this article You are Probably Bad at Investing where the author was suggesting buying in bad times and particularly March. Isn't that convenient in hindsight!

I was buying during the bad times for the 401k, here.

Here's the chart of one of the fund.


My grandma could have told me to buy everything in Nov and sell in Jan and buy again in Mar.

I speak about my grandma, but she has passed away 5 years ago at 102.

The truth is, it's too easy to point things out after the fact and easy to preach, hard to practice.

Blame Game

Feeling chained and blue from holding on to short too long.

My fate will be decided after options expiration.

Too many people playing the blame game and I want to play too.

Right now, I need to find someone to blame and why I did not have more long exposure.

Let's talk about my grandma.

For someone who is uneducated, she seems a lot smarter than most educated folks out there. Too bad she doesn't trade the market; otherwise, she can teach me a thing or two.

Golden Cross

Golden Cross occurred on June 24 at around 900.



Chart of SPX.
Bull will try to push for 950 and Bears will try to defend.


Notice that bull is singular and bears are plural :-)

Important Dow Update, July 14th

Confusion

If you had to chose one, which one would it be?

Not the girl, but the chart.









Don't forget that support does not have to hold.

As a kid, have you played rolled the ball down the stairs? The objective was to rolled the ball and not have it fall all the way to the bottom.

fib 61.8%

Charts near 61.8% fib: OXY,USO,ICE,POT (click title)

Notice how it was manipulated and how it coincided with MA.

RED

I have blogged about silent mover previously.
Today I decided to jump in.
FYI: Lately, stocks seem to be moving against me just as my order fills.





Take a look at other various LEVERAGE ETFs: BGZ, SMN, TZA

Chart

You get the most bang for the buck using leverage when there is a trend.
Sideway movements will kill you.

Go Fish

Not sure if it will get there; however, try to buy where the 100/200 meets

OI

AKS

MT

CE

Success

Wanted to share with you an excellent video on what leads to success.

Here's one of my success, finding perks.

Please, don't do what I do if you don't have the discipline and ability to pay off your balance in full each monthly cycle.

We currently have Citi Diamond Preferred Rewards Card (that's the reward you see below). Over the weekend, just applied for Citi Forward and Exxon Mobil.

Disclosure: I don't get paid for any advertisement. Notice that I don't even give you the link. But if you can't find it, I will be more than happy to give it to you.



If you like bottom fishing, here are two good candidates you might look at.

Keep your eyes out on the previous lows.



The UNG trade is very crowed in the twitter sphere, meaning everyone and his/her grandmothers are buying; hence, be careful.

Happy Independence Day

Engage Not

I have stated that I do and don't feel for Madoff's victims and here are the reasons.

Engage not irrationally into profitable attractions, because jumping too quickly into temptation may well blind wisdom.

I have empathy for them because I have lost everything before. I was young and foolish. I was a victim of my own greed. They were victims of their own greed.

I don't have sympathy for them because they should have known better. And how could they not! If it's too good to be true, then it's probably is. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. There are no rewards without risks.

Madoff's Investors Don't Deserve Compensation or Sympathy

You reap what you sow.

UPDATED: Charts

Look Not

If you are interested in the The Ten Commandments of Mindfulness, you can find it here

Look not for a universal consensus regarding one’s personal opinion, because complete adoption to a single opinion will render narrow mindedness.

First, I am by no means a finance or economic expert and I don't claim to be. However, I am enjoying debate and seeing how the thesis is falling into place.

The first post from Karl Denninger: To Dennis Kneale: You're An Idiot

Then the opposition: Mr. Denninger is Incorrect