CASH is KING

Do you see how hard it is to time the bottom?

I have stated before that I am buying every time the market tanks because i don't really know where the bottom is. It's also nice to be in 41% cash. BTW, this is a 401k account.

What I am reading

Bear Bottom Yet to Be Seen - Barron's

Ten Reasons Why I'm Waiting to Buy PotashCorp

PotashCorp: UBS Analyst Cautious Despite Record Quarter

No Quick Recovery for Stock Markets

Who are you going to trust and are there any ulterior motive?

Don't trust the analysts, trust the technical analysis.

Last week's bottom fishing paid off for KOL, not quite for JRCC, devasting for MTL. This is where stop will save you because it saved me.

I have been trading SKF but have not had the time to post it.



Use the 1min chart, buy on the cross over, take profit at any time. Don't try to catch the bottom.

MOS reports AC on Monday.

Update:
China, Jim Rogers, And Commodities

Don't Try This At Home

I trade what I post, but I don't post what I trade.



On record, my trade really sucks, but in reality, it's not that bad at all.

Let's review my favorite charts.

MOO
KOL
SLX
GEX
TWM

If the market gaps open on Thurday, try to buy TWM at 68

DRYS look bullish. Let's see how it does on Thursday.
DRYS

I am hoping this can still run, but don't let your profit run from you.
LFC

CVX


Deal, the above chart is for you.

Updates: Just saw a posting on beanie about WFR and thought I show you the chart.



When someone tells you it is impossible for a stock to fall, you better believe it is possible. Where's the bottom on that chart?

ShortAway

Click on the link to read the article.

Here are the charts.

Short ACO

Short CUB

Keep an eye on the rest.

SKF stuck on me

Seriously, are all the problems with financials over?

Don't answer that. I just remember that 3 sectors that will rally before the market recovers are financial, technology, and I forgot the 3rd. Anyone read my blog and actually remember?

Don't short it yet; but keep an eye on it. See the tripple bottom and the W bottom?

IWM

Gio bought JRCC(39) and he has been hot. I think I am going to wait for the 100MA.

JRCC

JRCC P&F

Commodities

Readers of my post should know that I love commodities, i.e. MOO, SLX, KOL. However, I have been reluctant to buy any since I am uncomfortable after rmissing the buying opportunity on the last pullback. It's bad enough to have missed the boat on the way up, and it's worse trying to catch a falling knife on the way down.

Here is another point of view for you to consider.
Are Commodities Reversing or Consolidating?

I have quoted Newton's law a few times.

1. Object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by external force
3. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Since there was a question on coals, I will post my analysis on KOL (coals ETF).
See the pointers? That is where all the supports are at (not the bottom).
Notice the Tripple Bottom Breakdown


Closed below 100sma.


Short term trend is still down.




If you want to go fishing, then try 43-44. Where should you sell? That depends on your pain tolernace. Remember, the bottom is ZERO or bankruptcy. There is only support and broken support.

It looks just as bad for MOO,SLX,GEX.

Chart: moo,slx,kol,gex

If you don't see a new post, it does not mean I don't have new ideas. I have just been lazy and have been posting in the comments.

Updated: 07/19

I still have 300 FXP.
I think I need to buy some FXI has a hedge.


FXP


TWM


IWM


MOO 200sma broken. See the capitulated low before April?


SLX 200sma broken. See the capitulated low before April?


SKF isthe 50ema going to hold?


SKF with 50sma and 50ema

Fear

I written about Complacency, Discipline, Fallacy, Frustration and now FEAR.

Do you have the same fear I have?

I do not buy stocks moving higher for fear they might fall. On the other hand, I have no fear of buying falling stocks because it will bounce (bottom fishing).

Is this not a fallacy? Only in trading the stock market am I irrational. How does a stock make new high if it does not go higher and vice versa?

This stock doubled in less than 3 months. If you were disciplined, where would you have purchased the stock? And where would you have sold?



Is this a bad sign?

Apology

Just last week I wrote about trust. Now I am apologizing if you are following my trades. I posted to short SKF at 178.50 with 3 pts stop loss. Then at the last minute before heading to working, I see that SKF was about to break the HOD. I wanted to take a little more risk and changed the stop to 5 pts.

I have also talked about how it is better to be lucky than good. Today I was lucky.

Keep in mind that I only have 2 hours at the beginning of each day to find and place a trade.

Here are the chart and my trade for the day.

Trust

I don't trust this market. It is like walking on thin ice.

I don't trust my long term buys because the are going in the wrong direction.

When bloggers disagree, who do you trust?

Not only is it important to know you are on the right side, but more important to know when you are on the wrong side.

Currently, I am planning to hold SINA Aug45c purchase for 2.40 until expiration.

New Features

At the very top of my blog, you will see

F8 Trades
Short Term Trades

I am starting to track trades that I post here at my blog and at beanie's.

Any post with ST BUY/SELL will be recorded in the XLS.

The Stop10Percent gives you an idea on to where you may need to exit.

However, for options I some times have to move stops up to 25%.

Keep in mind that gains and losses do not include commissions.

Therefore, if you paid $10/trade versus $1/trade then you are already behind the game.

First entry: DRYS buy Aug75c 5.00

Keep in mind that I also manage IRA's and ESA's. Those trades are meant to be longterm and are not tracked.

Discipline

Not disciplined enough to buy the stock because of fear.


Not disciplined enough to sell because of hold and hope and it's a long term investment.


Just confused. Should I or should I not buy. Just have to wait and see if 70 holds. Ended up buying DRYS buy Aug75c 5.00 instead.


A good article for you to read and my comments.
bernard-m-baruch

* A speculator is a man who observes the future, and acts before it occurs.

Where do you think the market will go from here? Should you be buying or shorting? I am slowly buying.

* Do not blame anybody for your mistakes and failures.

If you are paying someone to manage your money and is losing it, who's fault is that? Well, partially the money manager, but ultimately it's your fault for staying with the loser. I can lose my own money and don't need to pay anyone to do it for me.

* I made my money by selling too soon. I never lost money by turning a profit.

I need to accept that I can not always make the maximum potential profit. Making money is always better than losing money.

* Most of the successful people I’ve known are the ones who do more listening than talking.

I have always stated that if you are truly good, then people will recognize it. If you have to brag about it, then you have not reached that level. Unfortunately I have stoop to the level of bragging on a few ocassions lately, but will promise not to do it again.

Happy July 4th.

Don't Panic

I know it is easier said than done.

Here are the links to candle stick charts that I use.

Long Term using 50,100,200
50,100,200 sma

Short Term using 4,8,21
Short Term

P&F Chart
P&F

All the chart are pre-filled with MOS. But use your favorite stocks.

Here are a few and if you find any good ones, then let me know. Don't be in a hurry to buy.

MOS, CF, POT, IPI, SQM, TSL, LDK, STP, JASO, YGE, SPWR, DRYS

GEX, MOO, SLX, KOL, EWZ, ILF

Hard to Follow

I want to show you how hard it is to follow someone if you are day trading.

fortune8 Today 07:53 AM with 1 point
FSLR buy 262.50 double bottom 3 pts stop.

reply

fortune8 Today 08:07 AM with 1 point
Rasing stop to 1 penny from purchase price.

FSLR

I did exactly that as you can see here in the screen shot.


However, minutes later, I changed my stops to 1,2,3 points respectively. It's not that I want to mess people up. But it can be difficult to update post, watch the market and watch your own trade.

Next, in this volatile market, if you are not around to watch the charts, you can easily turn profits into losses.

Look at the MOS trade at 138.50 with 2 pts stop. MOS hit low of 136, my stop hit, and the stock ran to 141+. Had I been watching the chart, then I might have changed the stop exit just as I did with FSLR. I just go whip-saw.