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Friday, July 18, 2008


Readers of my post should know that I love commodities, i.e. MOO, SLX, KOL. However, I have been reluctant to buy any since I am uncomfortable after rmissing the buying opportunity on the last pullback. It's bad enough to have missed the boat on the way up, and it's worse trying to catch a falling knife on the way down.

Here is another point of view for you to consider.
Are Commodities Reversing or Consolidating?

I have quoted Newton's law a few times.

1. Object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by external force
3. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Since there was a question on coals, I will post my analysis on KOL (coals ETF).
See the pointers? That is where all the supports are at (not the bottom).
Notice the Tripple Bottom Breakdown

Closed below 100sma.

Short term trend is still down.

If you want to go fishing, then try 43-44. Where should you sell? That depends on your pain tolernace. Remember, the bottom is ZERO or bankruptcy. There is only support and broken support.

It looks just as bad for MOO,SLX,GEX.

Chart: moo,slx,kol,gex

If you don't see a new post, it does not mean I don't have new ideas. I have just been lazy and have been posting in the comments.

Updated: 07/19

I still have 300 FXP.
I think I need to buy some FXI has a hedge.




MOO 200sma broken. See the capitulated low before April?

SLX 200sma broken. See the capitulated low before April?

SKF isthe 50ema going to hold?

SKF with 50sma and 50ema