Shooting Star (Bearish)

Sell in May and go away: fact or fallacy?

Just wanted to get a quick post out there and will be back for more.

Click title to read.

Strategy Desk

Strategy Desk is provided by Ameritrade.

It allows for real time screens and trade strategy.

I have experiment with this before have decided to revisit this again.




Here are my screens:

{LONG}
(Bar[Open,5] < ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,4,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Open,5] < ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,8,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Open,5] < ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,21,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] > ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,4,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] > ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,8,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] > ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,21,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] > Bar[Open,5])

{SHORT}
(Bar[Open,5] > ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,4,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Open,5] > ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,8,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Open,5] > ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,21,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] < ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,4,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] < ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,8,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] < ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,21,0,5]) AND
(Bar[Close,5] < Bar[Open,5])

Please let me know what you find or think.

VIDEO: Causes of the Global Financial Meltdown

BestBuy GoodShort

Starting to sag a little and I have been waiting for it technically.





Short and cover if the MA cross above,

Gold Rush

With the latest interest in gold, I decided to see what is going on.

CandleGlance (GDX, ABX, GG, NEM, AU, BVN, GOLD, IAG, AEM, GFI) from GDX components

I like ABX, GOLD, GFI for technical reason.

I am stuck in ABX in retirement account at 34 too.

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It’s important that you continue to design your trading methods that fit your lifestyle, and with INO TV you can do that with access to hundreds of experts who have done it before and want to show you their strategies.

Learn more about INO TV and see if you’re ready to refresh your knowledge base.

==============================
DISCLOSURE:
I said I would give the product a plug.
I do get referral fees.
I am a current subscriber of FREE product.
I have been honest with you and that won't change.
==============================

QuoteTracker

Click on the title to go to QuoteTracker site.


I have the quotes sorted by % change descending.
You can see stocks moving up or down the list.

I also have HOD and LOD alerting.
HOD will paint the row green and fade.
LOD will paint the row red and fade.

Recommendation from twitter land.
Stoxjunkie@fortune8 Indeed. You have to try the Paintbar indicator

I have looked at it but have not done so yet.

DISCLOSURE: I DO NOT RECEIVE ANY COMPENSATION FOR THIS.

Bottom Triangle

I wanted to leave you a few bottoms to look at.

Historical alerts for CNX.


Take a break.


Missed April 23 alert because screen was for 31 days pattern.
I have changed that now.


Take a look at the 2 bottoms.

A Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bearish)

Does the Technical Alert work?

I have learned from the best that most answer is, "It depends."

How do you know unless you measure?

Therefore, I provided you with the history of alerts.

Trading Anecdote

It's free to sign up (click on image or title).

However, the number education videos are limited.

If you are a beginner and have the time, watch the video.

You will be amazed at the content and the advice.

UPDATEL

If you don't want to watch the video, here are some pictures for you to watch.

Compound Leverage

Click on the Title to access the XLS.

Please only make changes to the gold cell.

If you take the assumption that XLF will decrease 1% and increase 0.05%, then FAZ should be at 15.86 in 90 days.

Also, the assumption is a linear move.

ThinkAboutIt

I do have VLO and RIG in IRA accounts at higher prices.

Ascending Continuation Triangle

Unless you have a TradeKing account, you will not be able to the patterns.

What I will do is try to give you an example of what each pattern looks like.

These are not day trading vehicles and may or may not work depending on market conditions.

Technical Alerts for 2009-04-22

Instead of having to do this on a daily basis, I will email them to you if you are interested in them.

If you don't know what the patterns are, google them or ask and I can put up a chart for it.

Email to afortune8 at gmail

I promise not to share your email with anyone.

Found

Technical Alerts for 2009-04-21

As a service, I will try to provide you with daily alerts as I get them.

Please read the definition for the alerts and look at the the timeframe.

All post will be tagged so that it can be referenced in the future.

Split Seconds

That was all it took for me to change my mind and hold SRS.

Account down 20.50% today.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Picked up some TZA at 34.70 and thought that was a good deal (NOT).

Also bought some SDS at 67.88 as a hedge for the retirement accounts.

I am feeling like the days in algrebra where I was proving 2=1.

Think Differently

When does Dec 25 equals Oct 31?

The first person to post the correct answer gets one year free subscription to my blog. Wait a minute, I don't charge subscription. Therefore, you are all winners.

If I trade the same amount of dollar for each trade, have 1 winning trade and 2 losing trades, am I profitable?

What if every 2 girls you ask for a date rejects you and 1 like this accepts your date? Is it worth it?



Is she really wearing Einstein shirt? That's hot.







Back to profitability.

If you answered no, then what if I told you my rewards versus risks is 3-1.

For every trade, I have a 2% stop loss and a 6% profit.

It works unless you are undiscipline, like I am at times.

What hurts is not having stops, shooting stops, or taking more risks than planned.

If I take 6% risk and loss on two trades, then the next two wins only takes me back to even.

That is what happened to me. I was taking too much risk which resulted in having to cover near the top.

Today, my account was up 20.78%. Whew! And Wow!

Who Cares!

I have said this before and I will say it again.

NO ONE CARES MORE ABOUT YOUR MONEY MORE THAN YOU DO !!!

Reading and Watching the video is an eye opener.
Retirement Dreams Disappear With 401(k)s

This is not a brag because the account was at 72k at one point.
Given the market is at a 15 years low, my wife is fortunate to still have most of her hard earned money.

OverRated

Meredith Whitney is overated.

Read more here
Meredith Whitney Is Not God!
Weidner: Meredith Whitney Is Overhyped

Don't get me wrong.
She made a great call; however, she's keeps singing the one same song.

In my previous posts, I stated that I did not have 1 long purchase in April.

It dawned on me again. And this is why I blog so that I can recall my thoughts.

Gains from short is 100% and lost is infinite.
On the other hand, lost from long is 100% and gain is infinite.

Here is the chart for C.


Had you shorted at 20, covered at 1, gain 95%.
Had you bought at 1, sold at 4, gain 400%.

I know someone made a bold call on C at $1.
Don't remember who it is because I never paid attentention.
I WAS TAINTED!

I wrote in a few posts ago that there is always a trend.
If you are trading leverage ETF, while the 5m or the 60m trend might be up, the daily trend is still down. The longer time frame trumps the shorter one. Don't be a fool like me and hold on to them.

The screen is sorted in desceding order of possible price move %


From the screen above, I like FRO as long idea.


From another screen, FSLR may be a short idea.

MTB trade by zstock7, guest writer for fortune8

Guest writing again--It's ZEE!--
Fortune8 let's me do this
I've done my homework on shorting this month---
15 wins and 4 losses--
PCAR,TM,SRS at 32, and a couple of other's were the shorts that didn't work that well--
NEM ( best) 47 down to 37.5---9.5 points--I started to short ISRG--then decided it was gambling--
This will probably work---MTB--
Short at 60 and use 62 stop loss--

-
Trading record—83% W
Trading record Page ( shows Link to all postings)

On the Snide

I don't think I initiated a long position in the month of April.

Today, I cleaned out my shorts AAPL (13)%, AMZN(6.47), RIMM (2.93%).

The market is probably at the top because I have covered and I am good at covering at the stop.

I am fighting the wrong fight and I don't know how to stop.

Therefore, the best solution for me right now is to walk away, take a breather, and come back for refreshed.

No more stock trades. But I will continue to posts about stocks and the market.

Phoney Baloney

A substitute to the word "lie/s" and to an extent "bullshit".

source: http://www.urbandictionary.com

If I hear another person say this is a Bear Market Rally, I will most likely go postal.



If you love hot celebrities, then would you have missed her if she enters the same room you are in? Dobtful!

If you missed the rally, then just admit you missed the rally. Don't come up with some lame ass Bear Market Rally story. Please! Give me a break!



Since when is anyone not happy with 100% gain? I understand, it was very difficult to be buying financials. But what about commodities?



I blogged about the stock, bought the stock, sold the stock too early.

Honestly, I missed the rally, shorted too soon, but still holding on because I BELIEVE, the market will come back down.

So if you were like me and missed the rally, call it for what it is - A RALLY verus some other bullshit bear market rally.

Bob Parsons CEO of godaddy.com 16 rules of survival

1. Get and stay out of your comfort zone.
I believe that not much happens of any significance when we're in our comfort zone. I hear people say, "But I'm concerned about security." My response to that is simple: "Security is for cadavers."

2. Never give up.
Almost nothing works the first time it's attempted. Just because what you're doing does not seem to be working, doesn't mean it won't work. It just means that it might not work the way you're doing it. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it, and you wouldn't have an opportunity.

3. When you're ready to quit, you're closer than you think.
There's an old Chinese saying that I just love, and I believe it is so true. It goes like this: "The temptation to quit will be greatest just before you are about to succeed."

4. With regard to whatever worries you, not only accept the worst thing that could happen, but make it a point to quantify what the worst thing could be.
Very seldom will the worst consequence be anywhere near as bad as a cloud of "undefined consequences." My father would tell me early on, when I was struggling and losing my shirt trying to get Parsons Technology going, "Well, Robert, if it doesn't work, they can't eat you."

5. Focus on what you want to have happen.
Remember that old saying, "As you think, so shall you be."

6. Take things a day at a time.
No matter how difficult your situation is, you can get through it if you don't look too far into the future, and focus on the present moment. You can get through anything one day at a time.

7. Always be moving forward.
Never stop investing. Never stop improving. Never stop doing something new. The moment you stop improving your organization, it starts to die. Make it your goal to be better each and every day, in some small way. Remember the Japanese concept of Kaizen. Small daily improvements eventually result in huge advantages.

8. Be quick to decide.
Remember what the Union Civil War general, Tecumseh Sherman said: "A good plan violently executed today is far and away better than a perfect plan tomorrow."

9. Measure everything of significance.
I swear this is true. Anything that is measured and watched, improves.

10. Anything that is not managed will deteriorate.
If you want to uncover problems you don't know about, take a few moments and look closely at the areas you haven't examined for a while. I guarantee you problems will be there.

11. Pay attention to your competitors, but pay more attention to what you're doing.
When you look at your competitors, remember that everything looks perfect at a distance. Even the planet Earth, if you get far enough into space, looks like a peaceful place.

12. Never let anybody push you around.
In our society, with our laws and even playing field, you have just as much right to what you're doing as anyone else, provided that what you're doing is legal.

13. Never expect life to be fair.
Life isn't fair. You make your own breaks. You'll be doing good if the only meaning fair has to you, is something that you pay when you get on a bus (i.e., fare).

14. Solve your own problems.
You'll find that by coming up with your own solutions, you'll develop a competitive edge. Masura Ibuka, the co-founder of SONY, said it best: "You never succeed in technology, business, or anything by following the others." There's also an old Asian saying that I remind myself of frequently. It goes like this: "A wise man keeps his own counsel."

15. Don't take yourself too seriously.
Lighten up. Often, at least half of what we accomplish is due to luck. None of us are in control as much as we like to think we are.

16. There's always a reason to smile. Find it.
After all, you're really lucky just to be alive. Life is short. More and more, I agree with my little brother. He always reminds me: "We're not here for a long time; we're here for a good time."

I need to work on 15, 9, 4.

The above rules for survival is included with the permission of Bob Parsons (http://www.bobparsons.com) and is Copyright 2005 by Bob Parsons. All rights reserved."

Short FAZ and FAS - WOW!

There has been a disussion on twitter between aiki14, ZMoose12 and I about shorting both FAZ and FAS since inception.

Shorting since inception, YTD gain 150.35%
Shorting since 2009, YTD gain 135.77%
Calculations are based on CLOSING price.

Notice the loss in RED if you had shorted starting 2009.

Who is discplined enough to do this?

Most traders takes profit on a dime versus a dollar.

Double Tops and Pivot Points Explained

Click title to watch video.

Warning: no pretty girl picture.

Trend Always

Look at the down trend.


But it's really not that bad.




The longer time frame trend trumps the shorter one.

I use multiple time frames to identify trends.

If you day / swing trade, you need to know trend.

If you are lucky like I am, you need to know when your luck is going to run out.

So lucky that I sold a majority of my TZA position around 44.

Last point for you to ponder.

If I have 4 winning trades and 6 losing trades, then am I profitable?

Trend Honesty

I have always been honest with you since day one and there is no reason to change now.

I often question whether there is an ulterior motive when a person recommends a paid service especially when that person does not use the service.

I am recommending you sign up for the FREE trend analyis because I get thrown a bone if you do and I am actually subscribed to it.

I have been very fortunate, i.e fortune8, in life, career, and family. Because I strongly believe in karma, I will never try to sucker you. What comes around goes around.

Here is what it looks like.

April 2 the trend was -90.


April 6 the thrend is -100


Thank you for your support.

If you sign up, please leave a comment so that I can personally thank you.

Wedsneday night, I wll do a post on trend because there is always one.

UPDATE:

Here is a comment from a twitter

(I used to get an email every day. I deleted all the stocks on my watchlist. I unsubscribed and emailed them direct. No change)

I don't know what to say, but try at your own risk.