2008Mar03

A few days ago, I had posted at beanie that the market falls anticipating a recession. Once in a recession, the market may rise anticipating a recovery. I was surprise the market was able to hold up so well, until today, with all the bad news. I just needed to have some patience.

Another interest rate cut is expected on March 18, just befor options expiration. If we test the low and bounce, then that may be a good sign.

See comments for some charts since URL does not work well in posting.

2008Feb29

I purchased some STP for the longterm IRA account.

I know solars has been looking pretty bad, but I am hoping it is near bottom now.

STP has been trading in the range of 35-40. I did not buy at 40, but waited for the pullback. 38 seems to be a good price entry.

China does worry me a little; therefore, this is not a huge position. I am not solars crazy and not in love with solars.

Check the comment section for the chart.

Updated:



Have I talked about over-trading or trading because you are addicted to trading?

Sometimes you need to wait and let the trade develop.

I have purchased identical stocks in my IRA and regular account. Being penny wise and pound foolsih, I took profit in my regular account while letting it ride in my IRA.

2008Feb28

It scares me when everyone moves together like sheeps in a herd. I have been taught to expect the unexpected. Everyone is expecting the market to correct after the huge run it makes me nervous and unsure when it will actually correct.

Regardless, I have bought SDS, DXD, and DUG today in anticipation of the correction.

The problem is that I have been anticipation a correction while the market is running up and missed the opportunity there.

Solars, I just don't know that to think about the group. There are a few of them that seems to be running, but the majorities have been dogs.

Also, I hope you have been watching ATI since I have been shorting this over and over for a few quick buck.

2008Feb26

Yesterday was a very busy day for me and I did not get a chance to do a lot of homework.

ECONOMIC REPORT
U.S. Jan. PPI rises 1% on energy and food
Year-over-year increase highest since 1981
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:30 a.m. EST Feb. 26, 2008

Hopefully, you know that is bad.

We have bank and housing crisis with inflation lurking.

2008Feb25

This morning I looked so smart selling SLX and MOO. Then the close proved otherwise.

I have charts for SLX and MOO under links I like.

I hope they don't run because the chart looks good, but it is over sold.

My goal is to only buy 25% position just in case it fall. So buy 25% position on the pullback to 20dma.

2008Feb22

I am beating up on beanie again.

FYI: When I provide you with exit point, those are based on the close, unless you cannot bear the pain anymore. The reason my exit point are based on the close is because there could be an intra-day rally that will get you out of the position and then reverse. As an alternative, you can add 3% to my entry and exit position to factor in any errors.

A few days ago, I had wonder if FXI was a buy. Bad idea.

Notice that I have not recommended any solar stocks. I just don't trust them at the moment. You can day trade them or if you buy them for long term, small positions. Just don't go all in.

2008Feb21

Sold MOO and SLX (I know they are suppose to be longterm portfolio); however, it has had a great run.

Got killed in RIMM short (shorted some more at 107+ and keeping tight stops). Should have known better since RIMM running from 92 to 98. It was too good to be true and too much of easy money. THERE IS NO SUCH THING !!!

WYNN and ACI short working out well.

Took some profit on ACI leaving some behind for the ride.

Bought some very small position in TWM, just in case I am too early.

2008Feb20

Oil is going through the roof but can it stay that high?

DUG is a good way to play falling oil if you do not play options.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DUG&t=3m

RIMM

The stock has been trading in a range and I did not even attempt to short it today thiking the market would go higher. Lost the chance to. But if it breaks down, then it will really break down.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIMM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87797956401

2008Feb19

I just want to make you aware of a few charts.

VIX -->

I don't think VIX will break 23. Earnings season coming to an end.

DRYS -->

Support at 77/70/65

GRMN -->

Support at 64 (speculative trade)

Event: Fiscal Year 2007 Earnings Conference Call

Date: February 20, 2008 at 11 a.m. ET

RIMM -->

Huge resistance 98-99

ACI -->

Break down today

Remember, support and resistance are not absolute. You may want to factor in 3% delta.

-------

Significant Numbers To Watch

DJIA:
11634-Support, the 1/22/08 low
12767-Resistance, the 02/01/08 high
12838-50-day simple moving average
13332-200-day simple moving average

S&P 500:
1270-Support, the 1/22/08 low
1396-Resistance, the 02/01/08 high
1411-50-day simple moving average
1477-200-day simple moving average

NASDAQ:
2202-Support, the 1/23/08 low
2419-Resistance, the 02/01/08 high
2494-50-day simple moving average
2598-200-day simple moving average

2008Feb15

I suck, I suck, I really do.

Did anyone see DRYS AH - 90+ ?

One good thing did transpire from all this -- I did not short DRYS.

But then I did not short CMG either.

So you see, hindsight is 20/20.

2008Feb14

Valentine's Day tomorrow!

I suck at advanced options trading. Don't try it unless you know what you are doing. I am almost embarrassed to post this. But I am happy I was able to get away with very little damage.



Just Don't Do It.

2008Feb12

DRYS
Earnings Release: Thursday, February 14, 2008 After 4:00 P.M. EST

Some bascic differences between playing options (PUTS) versus shorting stocks.

PUTS - limited time, time decay, and limited loss.

SHORTS - unlimited time and unlimited loss.

The art of lowballing. Some times you will miss the run up. Other times you will get a very good price.



If you check the price, you will see I overpaid even with the lowballed price.

Take advantage of the turmoil, identify the sector you want to be in, invest for the long term.

2008Feb11

Emotions: fear and greed will destroy you.

Lately, I have been trading with fear of losing money. As a result, I have been taking profit too soon, not letting my winners run, and selling based on fear versus technical analysis.

Hindsight is 20/20. Live trading can be harder than you realize. Furthermore, it's easier to preach and harder to practice. Therefore, if you do as I say and not as I do, then you will become more successful than I.

Not everyone will show you his mistakes because everyone else only have good trades to brag about and no bad trades, at least this is what I have been reading. How is that possible?

I talked about DRYS here:

http://fade-me.disqus.com/2008feb06/#comment-128399

I even bought DRYS



Now look at the chart here:



I should have never sold DRYS at that price, but I sold it based on fear. It should have been sold at 71+ where the 4ema crossed below 21sma.

Here is another mistake -- averaging down when technicals were negative. This is based on hype and noise out there that I have not done a good job of filtering out. Also, greed took over. FSLR is so cheap and solars to the moon. Just because a stock is cheap, it does not mean it cannot get cheaper.



Here again, fear took over and I sold FSLR too early.



The technicals were never broken. I sold it at 168 because I was afraid of losing money on my purchase at 165.

Lastly, it's easy to recommend BUY and pump stock. But you have to realize, is the person eating his own cooking?

2008Feb07

Some stocks to consider.

DRYS - shipping will be the first to benefit coming out of a recession.

GRMN - oversold and Morgan Stanley somewhat positive

GMRN has been holding up relatively well in the downturn.

2008Feb06

For several days I was consistently posting the resistance for the DOW.

You need to know the support and resistance for the market and the trend.

In a declining market, don't chase. Let the stock come to you.

Significant Numbers To Watch

DJIA:
11634-Support, the 1/22/08 low
13563-Resistance, the 12/26/07 high
12977-50-day simple moving average
13363-200-day simple moving average


S&P 500:
1270-Support, the 1/23/08 low
1523-Resistance, the 12/11/07 high
1430-50-day simple moving average
1484-200-day simple moving average


NASDAQ:
2202-Support, the 1/23/08 low
2734-Resistance, the 12/11/07 high
2549-50-day simple moving average
2608-200-day simple moving average

2008Feb04

I will look at buying GOOG around $450. The price may never got there, but now is not the time to be chasing the stock . I have never owned GOOG, have already missed the run up, and no way will I get caught in the run down. If it does not get there, so be it. There are other fish in the sea.

Here is the chart for GOOG.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p14150592397

I am using BB21 because BB13 has already failed. It's my own TA.

RSI > 30 (wait for < 30)
MACD still above ZERO (wait for ZERO)
OBV just started to turn down; therefore, probably of continued sell off.