Happy Holidays 2011

I apologize for being bad and neglecting the blog; however, it does not mean I am not thankful to all of you. Wishing you and your family a wonderful holiday and all all trades be profitable.

Not Best, But Right

I came across this technical blog talking about Right Practice

The same Right Practice applies to trading as well.

I see people asking on the streams, what's the best technical indicator, what's the best trading strategies, what's the best time frame to trade, etc...

The answer to all those questions is, "It depends!"

Stop looking for what's best for someone else, and start looking for what's right for you.

Death Cross

Back in the days, there was a huge debate on golden cross which you can find >>here.

On the opposite end, here is the >>SPX death cross which seems to be ignored?

Take a look at the big picture to see where the supports are at.

Bears were late and it's possible that bulls will be late as well.

Look at how many shorts NFLX killed only to drop from 304 to 107 in 3 months.

Shopping List

Buy point for some stocks seen on the stream.

POT 50/40

SOHU 65/60

VALE 19

RAX 30/21

CLF 63

08/09 POT bought some for ROTH 51.88 - feeling foolish

Flexible Conflict

In my previous post, I wrote about trend trading using the 200ma.

Here I want to show you charts of BVN, the love the left without me.

P&F Chart shows bad price objective, but notice the reversal.


Stock is below 200ma which normally means avoid.


But short term indicator was great and missed opportunity.


What do you see in the above chart?
If you are a frequent reader, then you know my sayings.

What happened? How did I lose track of this stock? I failed to differentiate between short term and long term trend and lost focus. While long term trend can be down, short term trend can turn up.

Since you made it this far, here's something for you to enjoy,

That's Nha Trang Beach in Vietnam.

Trend Trading

Is trend trading that easy?

BUY when 200sma slope is positive and stock crosses above 200sma.
SELL when 200sma slope is positive and stock crosses above 200sma.
CAREFUL when 200sma slope is negative.

I have not back tested the strategy; hence, I don't know how effective it is.

If it was that easy, then why most money managers cannot even beat the index.

Easy in hindsight, isn't it?

Here are some 1year charts for you to look at.

Trading Ideas

This is not a trick just to get you here. There isn't any.

Trading ideas are very different from trading executions.

A poorly executed idea (even if it was a good idea) can result in poor returns.

There are lots of ideas out there, but do the ideas complement or supplement yours?

Don't tell me you haven't taken someone great ideas and it turned into disaster!

Ideas are starting points no more no less.

And don't forget, too many chefs spoil the broth.

June Gloom

Some gloomy holdings carried forward from May; however, that smile is beautiful.

>>AKAM
04/18 B@39.90 #FC

>>LRCX
05/04 B@48.50 #HV

>>JPM
05/31 B@43.25 #utma

>>MOBI
06/24 B@7.80

>>MOTR
06/24 B@8.80

>>PBR
06/29 B@32.80 #ESA

CLOSED Positions:

>>TZOO
06/28 B@61.75 #ROTH
06/29 S@65.26

http://twitter.com/#!/fortune8/status/86116415538610176

>>CLF
06/23 B@82.50 stop below 200sma
06/24 S@86.50

>>BVN
06/07 B@35.90 for trade #ROTH
06/14-06/16 S@37.60,37.90

>>SLV
06/16 B@34.50 auto trade #IB
06/27 S@32.80 (For same for not taking profit)

Cost of Laziness

I wanted to post this yesterday, but I was too lazy.

How does laziness affect your trading?

First, you get ideas from the stream without any validations.
You make the trade with 3% profit, but other person made 30%.
Sure, you are happy making 3% profit, but you missed out - opportunity cost.

Worse, you make the trade the stock drops 10+% and you now have a loss.
The other person already sold with 1% loss.
Now, you are left holding the bag.

You were too lazy to do any research, ask any question, do any validation.

I never understood how someone can have 1% loss and a 10%+ profit in this volatile market, but that's a topic for another day.

Another example of laziness which I encountered yesterday has to do with keeping financial data on the cloud. Here is a brief description of the product - a personal finance security service that alerts you to unwanted and unauthorized transactions on your credit card and debit card bills.

First, if your credit card does not have any fraud detection algorithm, then it's time to get a new one.

Second, if you are seriously that stupid and/or that lazy where you don't know about unwanted or unauthorized charges to your account, then you deserve to get robbed.

Too lazy to exercise? How much is that costing you?

Find out how much it's costing you to be lazy.

May Day

AKAM
04/18 B@39.90 #FC
>>AKAM

LRCX
05/04 B@48.50 #HV
>>LRCX

JPM
05/31 B@43.25 #utma
>>JPM

SLV
05/05 B@34 #IB
05/06 SS@0.25 May06 #IB
05/09 S@36 50% holding
05/10 S@37.40 50% holding
05/10 S@37.475 all remaining

ENTR
05/11 S@9.40, 04/21 B@8.40 #UTMA

TZOO
05/19 S@69.830/69.650, 05/19 B@69 #ROTH

ABX
05/26 S@47.20, 05/18 B@45.30 #UTMA

SLV
06/01 S@35.90, 05/27 B@37.10 #HV (stop under 36)

AKS
06/06 S@14.90, 05/23 B@14.20 #HV

Best Use of StockTwits 50

First, I would like to thank the ST50 team for implementing my suggestions.

If you go to the StockTwits 50, April 16, then you will see the information in the image below.



Click on St50 April 16 to retrieve the list of stock symbols.

Use Quote Tracker to Create Portfolio and Add Symbols to List


Here's the result.



Chart created base on your configuration and layout.

April

$TSL
02/28 B@27.80 #ROTH
03/28 Sold APR29C $1


$AKAM
04/18 B@39.90 #FC


$ENTR
04/21 B@8.40 #UTMA


$FSLR
04/29 $FSLR S@142.62, 04/27 B@137.90 #IB

$FNSR
03/29 S@20.20, 03/28 B@23.60 #ROLL (Hope this does not haunt me)

$ANR
http://twitter.com/fortune8/status/49829451340595200
03/30 S@59.00, 03/21 B@55.850 #ENTRIQ

$HMIN
04/04 Cover @41.65, 04/04 Short @42.70 #SCHW

$CREE
04/05 S@45.00, 04/05 B@42.30 #SCHW

$HMIN
04/06 Cover @43.348 , 04/06 Short @42.90 #SCHW

New Rule: No Double Dipping.

$CHL
04/08 S@47.00, 02/17 B@47.50 #ENTRIQ

$FXI
04/08 S@45.99, 02/17 B@42.39 #ROTH

$BVN
04/08 S@44.60, 03/29 started position at $41.900 #ROLL

$SDS
04/12 S@22.151, 04/11 B@21.72 #SCHW
Wrong price posted in comments.

$RVBD
04/16 S@35.46, 04/07 B@33.45 #ENT

$MRVL
04/18 S@15.45, 04/07 B@16.2392 #FC

$MOS
04/20 S@76.01 B@74.80 #IB

$AAPL
04/21 CS@349.54, 04/21 SS@354.06 #IB
04/26 CS@352.75, 04/26 SS@351.85 #IB

March Lesson

I love models who smile.


Last month, I took a bath in CREE. The bad trade turned worse because I was too stubborn to sell it. Going through my thoughts, I was thinking buying some puts for insurance but did not execute. Going forward, if holding through earnings buy puts.

Oh Shit! This is another one I need to dump as well.
A few bad losses can dent into profits already made.
From now on, no losses greater than 5% !!!

$MOTR
03/07 S@13.89, 02/07 B@21.55 #ENTRIQ
03/09 S@13.50, 02/09 B@18.45 #SCHW

$ABAT
03/07 S@3.74, 02/17 B@3.80 #HV

$REE
03/09 S@11.2501, 03/04 B@11.70 #FC

$AKAM
03/10 LOSS S@35.98, 03/03 B@38.55 #SCHW

$BVN
03/16 S@43.10, 03/15 B@41.700 #ROTH
03/21 S@43.2601 03/18 B@41.99 #FC

$VMW
03/22 S@73.233, 03/22 B@77.70 #SCHW (stops too tight)

$CHL
02/17 B@47.50 #ENTRIQ


$FXI
02/17 B@42.39 #ROTH



http://twitter.com/fortune8/status/49829451340595200
$ANR
03/21 B@55.850 #ENTRIQ

Happy Tet

Trang Nhung (I cannot believe she is Viet)


$CREE
01/13 B@$66.090 #ROTH
03/04 S@49.90

Bad CREE trade plus stubborn made it worse.

$MOTR
02/07 B@21.55 #ENTRIQ
02/09 B@18.45 #SCHW


$BVN
02/02 S@44.38, 01/27 B@41.50 #UTMA (phantom trade)
03/03 S@46.50 02/15 B@41.6799 #FC

$FXI
02/17 B@42.39 #ROTH


$CHL
02/17 B@47.50 #ENTRIQ


$ABAT
02/17 B@3.80 #HV

Top of 2011

Analysts' Best Stock Picks For 2011

Charts Analysts' Best Stock Picks For 2011