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Monday, August 25, 2008

What are you doing???

I am not suggesting that you become a bear. However, I am suggesting that you have at least 10% of your portfolio in short and at least 20% in cash.

Does that look bullish?

See the rise in volume? See all the inverse ETF? Don't own SKF or TWM anymore, but wish I still did. Still own QID.

See the climb in OBV? It makes sense, doesn't it? Stock goes up, volume goes up.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Good Bye and Good Luck

I started the blog to keep track of the cheeseburgers beanie owes me. Not sure when I will be able to enjoy them. It's been quiet here and I don't really like talking to myself.

I am usually on skype every morning from 6:00(ish) to 7:30(ish)) and then in the evening from 7:00(ish) to 8:00(ish) Pacific Time. If you want to chat about the market and stocks, then send your information to and I will add you.

Best of luck to you and stay ahead of the game.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008


Looks like beanie is late to the party again.

AMED chart

AMED chart

My trading buy was a little premature. However, I did managed to pick up some for my daughter's account on a longer term basis.

Watch for any rise in OBV which signals buying. Watch for support as well. One of us will be wrong, preferably beanie.


Do you see in the chart how the Nasdaq cannot make it over 3% of the 200sma?


This ETF is a somewhat stronger. Notic the beginning of the down turn in the price and OBV.

The infamous quote, "This time it is different." That's the sign of trouble brewing if you ask me.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Pay for Performance

Laid off structured finance pros look for new work

Read the above article.

If professionals with a huge amount of resources fail, then how is a person (blogger) better than they are? Most bloggers brag about performance but nothing to back it up with and what credentials do they have?

Simple question, would you pay $32k for a Hyundai? How about a Lexus? Get the point?

If you were going to buy a new LCD, car, stereo system, how much time do you send researching about the product? Now, if you were to buy a new stock, how much time do you spend researching the stock? I am guilty, what about you?

After many months of selling covered calls against my FXP holdings, the Aug calls were assigned.

I am not sure which might have been a better strategy: trading the stock, hedging with puts or covered calls. The reason I sold covered calls is because I believe the stock would go come back and I wanted some income while I waited.

I got the best premium in July. I could have received better premium in August had I waited a little more. Oh well. Now, I need to cheer for FXI.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008


Today, I was asked a question, "Why are you buying if 4,8,21 has not crossed above?"
That's a dam good question.
There are many ways to trade the market.
Trading the trend, shorting top and buying bottom.

There are more than one TA and more than one type of chart I use.

For TA, I use: ema, sma, macd, rsi, stoch, atr, obv, fib.

For chart, I use: P&F, candlestick, 1m,2m,3m,5m, 5d5m, daily, weekly.

You just need to learn to determine what works for you.

When buying options, I like to put in a low ball bid.
If it hits, then great, if not, then I just move on.
Some times it pays off; other times it dossn't.
The objective is to make more than you lose.

When I go on a losing streak, I tend not to post my picks because I hate for you to lose money on my behalf. Always protect your capital so that you can come back another day. For example, you know that I bought CF at 145 and when it dropped to the 200sma, there was no way I could recommend you buy the stock. But it would have been a good recommendation.

Here are some of my transactions on lowballing options buy.
Note, most of the stocks were sitting very close to the last support or 200sma.

I know that I complain about leaving money on the table; however, you can't lose by taking profit.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Good News and Bad News

I have never tracked those alerts; therefore, I do not know how accurate it is.


Just a quick post to test if disqus is still working.

Ags are sellig off. This is what I was afraid of all along. Somehow, I still managed to get burn. Under water with CF even with 7 pts covered call. At least it eases the pain.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Hell No !!!

Market bottom or top comes only in hindsight.

Too many pundits have been trying to time the market and too many having been wrong. If you read my posts and trades, then you will realize how difficult it is to sell at the top or buy at the bottom. Use my SKF trades as an example.

Here is my analysis on ACI which I purchased today. Normally, this should be done before and not after the purchase. I am doing this for the readers who followed the trades.

ACI P&F Chart

ACI News and Chart

If you are interested, I bought some CHK as well.

Apply the same analysis to your favorite stock.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Back from the dead

I am still so hung over from last night's party and it's so hard to bounce back.

Here is a chart compliments of stewie (meaning I took it from this site)

SKF is the money machine if you don't try to time top or bottom on it.

SKF has bounced 116-118 several times.