Fair

In all fairness, I wanted to show you the results for today's scan compared to Friday.



192 stocks closed above 4-8-21 versus 13 from Friday.

Action

Action speaks louder than words.

There have been many speculations on the Dubai debacle. Some thinks it's over blown, other thinks it's serious. Bottom line, does it matter because action speaks louder than words?

I created the the following screen to determine the market action:


Don't worry, be happy, but pay attention to the market action.

Don't forget that Friday was a half day so volume was lighter than usual.

On the radar:
DZZ

UNG

Your Money & Your Brain

An excellent article to read.

Your Money & Your Brain

Laugh

Bears are having a good laugh on the Dubai default.

A few 2x inverse ETF's for you to stare at.

Sell #TWM for loss when #IWM close above 61.57.

Notice the OBV.

IWM


TWM


SDS


QID


DXD

22Watch

Two To Watch, get it? I was told not to quit day job.

Not exactly 2, but how about 2x3?




PCS Fib Chart

PCS Candle Chart

LEAP Fib Chart

LEAP Candle Chart


PCS and LEAP showed up on the screen: C gt O 4-8-21.
If you don't already know that that is, search the blog or leave comment.
I prefer PCS; however, the choice is yours.

Broken

zstock had a question about MOS from the technical alert a few weeks ago.

Here is the actual BEARISH alert and chart for MOS.
Do you see the pattern was broken?
Once this happens, you need to exit the trade.



Remembered the talk about H&S on SPX?
It reversed didn't it?
You wouldn't still be short would you?



Make sure you are going in the same direction as the stock.

Golden Cross 6 months After

I first blogged about the golden cross here



Take a closer look at the image. Historically, the 6 months performance after the the golden cross is 10.01%. The performance since golden cross on June 24 around 900 is 21.22%. The funny thing with averages is that you can have 30, 0, 0 and it averages to 10. Unfortunately, I don't have the data points.

So far, performance is 2x the average. Can it go higher, sure? At this point, I don't know if this is a new record performance or not because I don't know what the record is or was.

Just something to think about.



OBV is declining as price drop and volume is rising.

Option's VEGA

Put Strike Price / Stock Price 75.70

85 - Deep in the money
80 - In the money
75 - At the money
70 - Out the money
65 - Deep out of the money

SHLD previous close price = 75.77


Both Calls and Puts Negative


Huge drop in volatility



Definition of Vega from various sites:
optionstradingbeginner Vega
theoptionsguide Vega

This shows you how you can be right in the stock price projection and wrong in options price direction. Hopefully, I got this right.

See how I have always said data are not any good unless you can mine them.
Can you see the good and the bad?

Balls of Steel

I know that you should not double down on a losing trade. But how do you know if a trade is a losing trade? Because the price movement goes against you initially, does not necessarily mean it was a losing trade.

I like to reference the game of black jack once in a while.

Let's say you have 11 and dealer has face card showing. You double down and got a 2. You have the opportunity to surrender and lose half the wager amount. Do you, would you?

The card underneath turns out to be 6, dealer draw 10 and busted.

Here are the charts for TWM.




I have tweeted - I will sell #TWM for loss when #IWM close above 61.57.

Would you have double down? Do you have balls of steel?

FYI: I did not double down, never saw it, but it's 28.19% of my one IRA account.
May be I should have only invested 5% of account to start with.

Thanks

I know I am fortune8 and sometimes I take things for granted.

If I don't do this now, I might forget. With Thanksgiving coming up, I just wanted to say thanks.

Thanks for families and friends.
Thanks for good careers and colleagues.
Thanks for readers who stop by for quick read.
Thanks for readers who come back for another read.
Thanks for those who has helped me along the way.
Thanks for those who are tolerant of me.
Thanks for those who have given the time of day.
Thanks for all the beauties in the world.

Garbage

After reading some of my old posts from a year ago, I see that my writing has turned into garbage. I am disappointed at myself because, I don't have many new ideas to offer you.

I first wrote about herd mentality here

Here's another garbage: Volume


Had you pay attention to my charts, you will realize that a majority of them have On Balance Volume (OBV). It's on the chart for a reason.

I was infected by the herd mentality - there's no volume in this rally. Hence, I was paying attention to Volume and not On Balance Volume. Today, I questioned myself on how was it possible that this market continues to rise on no volume. Then it hit me dead smack in the face, look at the On Balance Volume.

Chalk this up as another lesson learned and sometimes too much information can be detrimental.

Solars

STP Chart below compliments of theEquilibrium


P&FGlance: STP,SOLF,CSIQ,TSL,LDK,JASO,YGE,CSUN,SOL

CandleGlance: STP,SOLF,CSIQ,TSL,LDK,JASO,YGE,CSUN,SOL

Bar Set High for Next Week’s Slew of Solar Reports

STP/SOLF hit one screen JASO/SOLF/YGE hit another.

I have a bias for STP

Are stops for suckers?

I am starting to think stops are for suckers because it seems that every stop I put hit ends up hitting by pennies.



I bought SDS for 36.43 at 09:34:10 ET and stopped out for 36.14 (limit stop set at 36.13) at 10:15:15 ET.

I had profit and did not take it. Had a better exit at 9:54 and did not take it because I did not want to panic sell. Does this happen to you?

Here's a great chart from playbigstocks.

Recovery

Liz Ann Sonders was rated the best market strategist for 2009 according to Kiplinger's.

Who am I to disagree? She's been dead on.

Recovery Straight Ahead—but What’s Around the Corner? by Liz Ann Sonders
(open in new window)

Looking for Someone

There are several people I think are geniuses and Seth Godin is one of them.

Seth Godin writes in his post: Everyone is clueless

You don't want everyone. You want the right someone.

Someone who cares about what you do. Someone who will make a contribution that matters. Someone who will spread the word.

As soon as you start focusing on finding the right someone, things get better, fast. That's because you can ignore everyone and settle in and focus on the people you actually want.

I love this.


Thanks to Seth Godin and Kim Komando for the materials presented here.

Google Voice

Google Voice Invitation https://services.google.com/fb/forms/googlevoiceinvite/

Google Voice Blog http://googlevoiceblog.blogspot.com/

Here are the mistakes I made.

1. Select Cell Number (Sprint charges for call forwarding)
2. Select Google Number not local
3. Paid $10 to have it changed.

Indecision

I remembered reading Seth Godin's post Make a decision

Then I sit here indecisive as to whether or not to create a new post. I am sure some of you are the same way about the market. Should I buy, should I sell, should I short, should I be bullish or should I be bearish.

I also hear trade what you see and not what you hear.

What do you see?


OOPS! Wrong chart. Look at this one here.

BEARS EveryWhere

Sticking with RED theme.


Configuration and Exit strategy



Backtesting Performance



Bears



As you can see, it's not about the win percentages.
It's about how big the wins are compared to the losses.