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Friday, November 2, 2007



z-stock said...

Nice SPY...i think spy gets to the upper part of bollinger 157/158 next week
That’s what COT is saying, COT is also saying SPY fails to get to 159 next week
However remember QQQQ reaching 56...COT says QQQQ will explode next week
QQQQ bollinger moved higher to 56.8 and that totally supports what i read on QQQQ reaches 56.8 easy....
And DIA on the COT is Nuetral, which i just don’t get...
COT says avoid XLE and pay attention to XLF...
zee -my - my

sgv said...

When beanie sounds that alarm last week about the market might crash on "epic proportions" made me sell most of my holdings a little bit too early and missed big gains. I've seen market corrections and the big one 20 years ago. I did not do anything and could not do anything but wait and hope for the best. And never change my investment choices on my future contribution on my 401K and know what, the market rebounded the following year and actually I made more money because I stayed with it.
I think the market volatility that we have been seeing over the years are the equivalent of market corrections and "mini" market crashes that happens when market get ahead of itself.
As I said before, because of global economy, with more countries joining the ranks of prosperous countries, with large institutional investors, ie pension and retirement funds, even foreign government investment pouring in the US Stock market and the ever-popular online investing- there are more money out there that the market seldom gets into "bear market" period.
Maybe a market crash will happen sooner or later, but chances are much lower now than ever because the market now is smarter than ever. Even shorting serves an unintended purpose of balancing too much optimism thereby acting like a brake when the market gets too high too soon.

fortune8 said...


If you are a long term investor, you must be in the market. If you have a nice core holdings, then don't sell. Next time hedge buy buying short ETF.

There will always be corrections as they are healthy for the market.

Timing the market is not an easy task. You have to stay with the trend. I left money on the table when I went to cash too early in Mar and May.

sgv said...

I am a long term investor, sort of; until I lost a lot in one day-$14K, then I develop a skill to manage my portfolio aggressively. Right now, my long term hold are AAPL, YGE AND LDK.
Sold RIMM and VMW a few days ago at a good profit-1K, held only for a few days. At one time this year (about Feb/March), I held 200 shares of AAPL; sold and bought some. Could have gain over 10K if I held on. But still made good money and rolled over to other good stocks.
I was just thinking aloud, Beanie used to give me good advice but lately he's been a bit off. Last year, I was going to hold on to my 500 shares of RVBD I bought @18.00, but he recommended for me to unload half to take profit when it went up to 24 and I did. Two weeks later it went up to over 30 and it even went up to 52.81 lately before going down to mid 30's. Reflecting back then, I should have realized Beanie is a day-trader, hence he's too defensive and would not take too many chances.

fortune8 said...


Check out this guy's blog.

I think he is really good.

As far as losses and gains, don't look at dollar value. Instead, look at percentage value.

14k seems like a lot. But if you account value is a million, then it's not that bad.

Good luck to you.