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Friday, November 23, 2007

Is a Bear Market Developing?

I am not a bear, but I don't ignore the facts. It's a must read.


sgv said...

Bear Market developing? yes. But it might not be a "secular" bear market- I think because there are still too much money in the market right now that from time to time, Bulls tries to gain the upper hand. But sooner or later, the Bear will slowly turn the tide, IF and WHEN the global market capitulates. Doesn't your Trend Analysis tells you that now? I don't see a sustain market rally that will stretch for many months for now. I already re-aligned my portfolio last July and move half to cash. I even re-allocate my 401K to 50/50 equity/cash. I'll buy on every dip and will cash out again when market is at its peak.

fortune8 said...

There is not enough fear in the market. Investors are still too complacent. Going below 11/12 low was a bad sign. Might test 8/16 low going forward. There is huge money on the side lines waiting to come in. Take a look at TLT.

sgv said...

Yes I noticed that Bonds are going up lately, I think another sign of more and more players are getting more cautious. Last week I move another 2K on my 401K to a Bond Fund. I am not taking chances on my retirement. I already lost at least 15% on value of my combined retirement portfolio.
I think a rate cut will only temporarily lift the market but the long term problem of anemic economic growth will persist. The federal gov't. squandered our resources over the war and printed too much money.