BEP

BEP = Break Even Point.

BeWare of Leverage ETF

Happy Holidays Everyone!

Naughty or nice, bulls or bears, friends or enemies, I wish you a joyous holiday and a prosperous New Year.

If you don't see it, then click on the present to see the giffs inside.

BeWare of Experts

In my profession, I have learned to question authority and also to be cautious of the so called "expert". I went to technical training provided by an "expert". Trust me when I say I don't know a lot. However, when I knew 80% of the training materials provided by the "expert", I realize it was a waste of money.

The same also applies to the stock market. Too many experts want to take your money and teach you how to trade. Honestly, the best way to learn is to teach your self, to make mistakes, and to learn from the mistakes. It also doesn't hurt to have a mentor, one who wants to help versus hinder you.

I came across an intereresting read >If you could meet one person...

Today, I saw too many individuals who were clueless about the distribution on 2x ETFs. And these individuals are the ones who want to show you how to trade for a fee. I am not going to name any names, but I am sure they know who they are. If I have offended you, then it's probably you that I am talking about.

Lastly, I am not here to prove anything. I am here to disprove. I am the yang to the ying and the counter example to the example.

Twitter Humor

Replace the whale image with the fox image.

Are users that happy to know that twitter is down?

They would be if they know Megan is working on it.

EBS Short

>EBS P&F

>EBS Candle

3x a charm? It either break out or break down. I am going to risk 1 pt that it doesn't for 2 pts gain on the downside. That's 2/1 reward versus risk or more.

Changing stop to 26.10

Against All Odds

Normally, it is bad to go against the trend. But do you think there could be capitulation here? After all, there were all the hypes on how one can make good money on 2x inverse ETFs. Did this lead some sheep into the slaughter house and now cannot endure the pain anymore? Remember Newton's law?

>SRS Chart

Historically, this is a good time to buy stocks. At the same time, I want to leave you another quote from Kung Fu Panda, “Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That is why it is called the present.”

Disclaimer: I own SRS at 54.50

My Twitter Notes

Reviewing my thoughts and notes from twitter.

I need to slow down and type better. WTF is this? Absolutely no sense.


Am I going to be lucky and is the Math degree going to pay off?


I didn't buy anything today, which means you should have.


Like I have said before, scared money don't win.


Sometimes, you just have to trust your instinct and put on noise cancelling headphones.


>FAS Chart OBV does not rise unless there are buyers.

Kung Fu Panda quotes, "There is no charge for awesomeness...or attractiveness."

My Trading Rules

First, I major in Information Systems with minor in Math and Accounting.

This means I am a little anal when it comes to numbers, especially when they don't add up.

Rule #1 - I will post useful and not useless information.





Rule #2 - I will best try to post the price for the stock transaction so that there is a point of reference.





Rule #3 - My stops are not set in stone. I raise them to protect profit. I lower them to take more risk. Some times they work and some times they don't.



Why am I here? I am here to learn and to make more money. Hopefully, you can learn from my mistakes. Fade Me for a reason.

Twins Fun

If you can handle the twins, then you will have a lot of fun.

Me? I am never that good or lucky.

FAS chart

Timing and TimeFrame

When you follow a blogger or a post, you need to understand the timing and timeframe.

I posted >here that I was willing to buy OXY and I did at 48.

If the timing was a daytrade, then I would / should have been out. But it was more of a swing trade which I was willing to hold for a while and it turned out well.

>OXY

>Amazing Accuracy on SPX

>'Tis the Season to be Jolly?

If you have followed me long enough, you know that I will call a bullshit, "bullshit" and not anything else. I missed the down move today because I am still a little bullish bias and not being able to trade at work does not help either.

It's bad enough that brokers steal your money, but now, bloggers are trying to do it as well. Would you buy a car without testing driving it? Trust yourself and invest your time to learning and you will do well. Don't trust the bloggers out there (myself included) or trust but verify.

Time For The Major Indexes To Breakout

Time For The Major Indexes To Breakout

The November job report was horrendous. Nonfarm payroll dropped by 533,000 jobs, the largest drop since 1974, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.7%. But once again, stocks were able to fight off the bad news. In the end, the bulls claimed victory for the day. The DJIA went from a triple digit loss in the morning to a triple digit gain at the close, up 259.18 points (+3.09%) to finish the week at 8635.42. The S&P 500 finished up 30.85 points (+3.65%) at 876.07 while the NASDAQ gained 63.75 points (+4.41%) at 1509.31.

The market internals totally turned around as prices reversed and finished in definitively positive territory. Advancers led decliners by a 7 to 3 ratio on the NYSE and by a 9 to 4 ratio on the NASDAQ. Volume expanded some from yesterday. About 85% of the volume was on the upside on both marketplaces. The financials (ETFs: XLF, UYG and FAS) were able to hold ground early in the morning backstopping the overall market from a larger decline in the face of the horrific employment data and provided leadership in the afternoon rally. The energy names which were the major drag in the DJIA in the morning were also able to turn around in the afternoon, adding strength to the afternoon rally.

Today's reversal on bad news suggests that “buying on the dip" is at work which should limit the downside risk in this market. VIX once again fell under its 50 day moving average suggesting a reduced fear level in the market. With a lighter week in terms of economic and corporate events, I expect bullish momentum to continue into next week. This doesn't mean that we won't see a pullback like what we had yesterday. Additionally, the major indexes still need to break above their respective resistance levels to change the longer trend to up.

Resistance for the DJIA is at 8831 (November 28 high) followed by 8985 (50 day moving average). Resistance for the S&P 500 is at 896 (November 28 high) followed by 916 (November 14 high) with 50 day moving average at 936. The NASDAQ broke above its 20 day moving average today and is now looking at the 1535 (November 28 high) resistance level followed by the 1596 level (November 13 high).

by Yin Lin, CFA

Significant Numbers To Watch

DJIA:
7449-Support, the 11/21/2008 low
9653-Resistance, the 11/04/2008 high
9033-50-day simple moving average
11263-200-day moving average

S&P 500:
741-Support, the 11/21/08 low
1007-Resistance, the 11/04/2008 high
942-50-day simple moving average
1224-200-day moving average

NASDAQ:
1295-Support, the 11/21/08 low
2200-Resistance, the 10/14/2008 high
1666-50-day simple moving average
2178-200-day moving average

Luck Favored the Prepared

First, a rant. It gets on my nerves when bloggers boast that they make 10k trading this week. Anyone with any math background will know that it's all about percentages. 10k trading with 500k equals 2% whereas 10k trading with 100k equals 10%.

I missed >SKF since I did not see the chart until Sunday night. Also, I thought it would fade and I thought wrong.

I can only find one stock I am willing to buy at the moment.

>OXY P&F

>OXY Candle

Short-Term Bullish

PennyWise GoldFoolish

Yesterday on a watchlist, there were two gold stocks (GLD and DGP). I thought I had GG on the list because I was thinking about it all morning, but apparently not.

Anyhow, ABX came on the screen and I had to decide which ones to buy.

I compared the a few Gold Stocks and almost missed the run up trying to low ball ABX. I thought, if this stock is going to run, then those pennies are not going to matter. It turns out that I made the right choice.



Little did I know that Gold would soon become the story and performance of the day.



CRY FOR HELP.

How does one get rid of an addiction? I don't even like fish, but I seem to be bottom fishing too much. Yes! I did buy BIDU today, but I am going to keep a tight stop 3-4%.

WatchList

What's that saying again? Be greedy when others are fearful.

I am throwing away the fishing pole and only looking at stocks where 4ema and 8ema are still above 21sma or about to cross above 21sma.

Here are few:

>PCLN

>GEO

>CPO

>DGP

>GLD

Timing

It's all about timing. I had a feeling about EEV and was too early shorting the stock yesterday. After taking a loss, I was gun shy about shorting it again today. There was no way that I could have taken advatage of the opportunity because of having to work. However, I hope that you can.

On twitter, traders were thinking FXP and EEV were easy money. I had posted that FXP support was at 73 and then 69. Never did I expect FXP would close a few pts above the 52wk low. Something strange with FXP in that it is close to 52k low and FXI is not even at 3mos high. If FXI goes to 40, then where will FXP be at?

Look at how all the 2x inverse ETF started disappearing from the screen.


Did you catch >USO yesterday or >POT today?

OBV is holding for POT and huge volume in >CF.

Numbers

Significant Numbers To Watch

DJIA:
7882-Support, the 10/10/08 low
9794-Resistance, the 10/14/08 high
10089-50-day simple moving average
11638-200-day simple moving average

S&P 500:
839-Support, the 10/10/08 low
1044-Resistance, the 10/14/08 high
1085-50-day simple moving average
1271-200-day simple moving average

NASDAQ:
1542-Support, the 10/10/08 low
1896-Resistance, the 10/14/08 high
1953-50-day simple moving average
2259-200-day simple moving average

Numbers on the NASDAQ 1542 is WRONG!
Should be 1493 according to the chart.
Thanks to bobbrill for noticing it.

>NASDAQ COMPOSITE

USO

A few months ago, I recall having an interest in USO around 48.

Pundits overshot oil to the upside and may have overshot to the downside.

See how it USO dropped right to 48 and close above it.

Good for a nibble, but don't over stay your welcome.

>USO

Looking at the screen for Uptrend and Currently Oversold, I don't see FXP and EEV anymore and has raised my curiosity. Take a look at the charts and you will see why.



>FXP >EEV

Trend

In this market, always remember that the trend is your friend.

EEV is no longer in the screen. I will still keep an eye on it.


EEV - I got lucky bottom fishing at 79


ST trend has not changed up yet. May be tomorrow?


Change in short term trend to keep an eye on.

Listen

Bottom line, it is your money and be careful who you listen to out there.

I know there are people smarter than I am, but I have not been able to find them.

I had fired the money manager managing 50% of my retirement because he was not doing any better than I am and he was charging annual 2% of the portfolio value.

What a joke !!!

Lastly, it's easier to preach and harder to practice.

What I am reading and I will add more as time goes by.

> Denotes open in new window.

>The Housing Crisis Is Over

>Global economy depends on China

>China unveils stimulus package as growth slows
Program will spend more than $585 billion to jump-start economy

Charts of some stocks/options I bought.





Support is at 69.
Does not mean it has to go to 69, but breaking 69 would be bad.
>FXP P&F Chart

Lucky

I rather be lucky than good. If you have ever play no limit poker and lost at the river playing the hand perfectly, then you know what I am talking about.



Use the link below and fill in the ticker.
Candle Chart

This volatility is great and I was trying to lowball some buys.
Guess I was not lucky enough.



LOD was 5.10. Sucks to be me.


If you get luck, the pay off can be HUGE!

WoW

What a difference a day makes.
Shorted ESI@88 today (posted@TK and twitter)

ESI P&F

ESI Candle

I know investors and their grandmas are shorting this market. Hey, I did it. However, there is still a possibility of a rally towards year end.
The market went up fast and it's only fair to give back some.

Buy near support with 3% stops.

MOS P&F

MOS Candle

Orginally posted FXP looks like a buy on the 5 min, but no confirmation on the 60 min.

FXP confirmed BUY today on 60m 10d chart.
I was day early and dollar overpaid.

Why don't I just use the charts instead of the dam fishing poles !!!
Now I know the good reason why my grandma broke my fishing poles.

Lastly, Olga got your back and so do I.



UPDATE

I want to show you how opinion and chart can be bias depending on the time frame.

FXP Candle

Look at HOD which bump right into 4ema. Does that chart look bullish to you?

SHEEP

Today I was the sheep who bought 2x inverse ETF. I had a feeling that it would drop and have been waiting for it. Just did not expect this huge of a drop.

Good thing is it is still in an uptrend. Bad thing is support at 79 broken and double bottom breakdown today. Take a look at the chart below.

FXP P&F Chart

Screener updated 11/04/2008 sorty by [15sma - 50sma][%] descending.


Stay away from stocks that are so far away from the 200sma until you see a bounce or a place to put $$$. Make sure you are on the right side (pun intended)

WatchList

Update: Screener filters


Price > 20
Avg 6 mos vol > 100000
%D < 3500
%D Slow < 3500
15sma > 50 sma
50sma > 120sma

Don't Care

My blog is called fade-me for a reason.

When asked if I am bullish or bearish, the answer is I don't care.

I trade whatever the trends show me because the trend is my friend.

I was asked about FXP this morning. My answer was that it seems to be detiorating. Buy at 86 if you must, but stop at 84. Now how did I get those numbers, one asked. Take a took at the chart below.

FXP P&F Chart

FXP looks like a buy on the 5 min, but no confirmation on the 60 min.





I will show you what I mean by confirmation for CF chart.
Where would you have bought the stock looking at the chart below?



Where would you have bought the stock looking at the chart below?


Which one paints a better picture?

Everyone is trying to create one's own chart pattern.

Here is one for you.
Where would you put the $$$ on that beauty above and below?

Bottom Fishing

If you are going fishing, then you need to have bait (cash) and patience (time).

Today the fund closed at $14.16 which is still down from $17.04


That is a lot of work for little gain and I am hoping for 1 step back and 2 steps forward.

You need to be aware that the market trades forward looking and not backward looking. Who does not know about the global recession? Who does not know about bad earnings, lower guidances, and downgrades? Some companies are actually beating earnings.

I am looking to buy a little lower.
MACD just turned negative.
OBV/RSI turning down.
FXP Chart

Did you catch my tweeter feed to low ball FXP at 88? I actually cancelled the trade because of the TA describe above.



This is why you should be careful when following someone because you may end up holding the short end of the stick.

It's so easy

to make a mistake that is.



I would have missed out on 100++% gain if I had not cancel the order. As I keep on saying, "In this market, sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good."

I wasn't so lucky on this trade. I was scared.