The One Percent Crumb

I want to debunk the myth that making 1% is just crumbs.
It's not crumb if you are able to compound the investment.

I took a random distribution of 3 values 0,1,2.
If there resulting value is 0, then the trade is a 0.5% loss; otherwise, the trade is a 1% win. No one wins 100% of the time,right?

If a trade is a win 2 out of 3, then the percentage should be 67% win. However, in a random distribution that may not always be the case. In the example I have provided, the win is 72.33%,

This means that if you start an account with $10,000 you would end up with $57,154.95 after completing 300 trades. That's a 500% plus ROI.

Hence, making 1% profit is not crumbs if one can consistently do it.

Here is the link to data

MAR positions

2012/02/29 SHORT IWM 82.75
2012/03/01 COVER IWM 81.60

2012/03/02 SHORT SINA 74.85
2012/03/05 COVER SINA 73.48

2012/03/02 SHORT CRM 143.91
2012/03/06 COVER CRM 140.78

2012/03/08 BOUGHT CLF 60.60
2012/03/12 SOLD CLF 64.05

2012/03/05 BOUGHT LNKD 87.07
2012/03/05 SOLD LNKD 91.30

2012/03/08 SHORT APPL 535.65
2012/03/13 COVER AAPL 567.90

2012/03/09 SHORT SINA 76.85 ADD
2012/03/16 COVER SINA 71.75

2012/03/21 BOUGHT GMCR 53.35
2012/03/22 SOLD GMCR 54.95

2012/03/01 BOUGHT UPL 24.70
2012/03/23 SOLD UPL 23.2001

2012/03/06 SHORT SINA 69.60
2012/03/06 COVER SINA 67.34 HALF position
2012/03/23 COVER SINA 69.19

2012/03/02 BOUGHT BIDU 140.900 SOLD MAR140C 4.100 (Expired)
2012/03/16 BASIS BIDU 136.80
2012/03/19 SOLD BIDU MAR140C (weekly Mar 23) 0.95 against long position.
2012/03/26 SOLD BIDU 140 ASSIGNED

2012/03/23 BOUGHT NEM 53.08
2012/03/26 SOLD NEM 53.390

2012/03/21 BOUGHT YELP 23.20
2012/03/28 SOLD YELP 24.55

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2012/03/07 SHORT CRM 142.50
2012/03/27 SHORT CRM 157 - ALL OUT on close above 160

2012/13/16 BOUGHT FCX 38.70

2012/02/27 BOUGHT SODA 44.60 & SOLD MAR42.50C 5.50 (Expired)
2012/06/16 BASIS SODA 39.30

2012/03/23 BOUGHT SINA 69.25
2012/03/23 BOUGHT FIO 29.1999
2012/03/28 BOUGHT GLW 14.20

FEB positions

There is none and I will post them as I trade them.

2012/02/04 SHORT LNKD@79.66 3% risk on this one for now.
2012/02/06 COVER LNDK@78.80


2012/02/07 BOUGHT SOHU@51.5099
2012/02/08 SOLD SOHU@53.10

2012/02/08 BOUGHT SINA@65.00
2012/02/14 SOLD SINA@69.30

2012/02/13 SHORT APPL@503
2012/02/15 SHORT APPL@515.80
2012/02/15 COVER AAPL@517.20

My timing was literally off by a few hours. This one hurt.

2012/02/10 SHORT LNKD@84.10
2012/02/10 COVER LNKD@95

2012/02/07 BOUGHT FIO@25
2012/02/22 SOLD FIO 26.95

2012/02/07 SHORT IWM@82.25
2012/02/22 COVER IWM 82.20

2012/02/17 BOUGHT FSLR 43.80
2012/02/23 SOLD FSLR 37.99

2012/02/21 BOUGHT AEM 35.95
2012/02/24 SOLD AEM 37.440

2012/02/23 BOUGHT MCP 29.14
2012/02/2 SOLD MCP 28.28

2012/02/21 BOUGHT LNKD@95
2012/02/27 SOLD LNKD 89.51 Double Whammy for me on this trade. Lesson learned.

2012/02/21 BOUGHT SINA@67.65
2012/02/28 SOLD SINA 70.75

2012/02/27 BOUGHT SODA 44.60 & SOLD Mar42.50C 5.50
2012/02/29 SHORT IWM 82.75