2008Jan29

I was tainted and ended up shorting FSLR.

I blame myself for not looking at the big picture, especially when I had read the blog below.

http://ac-investor.blogspot.com/2008/01/trade-idea-for-tuesday-goog-medx-fslr.html

Lesson learned is that some times you need to filter out all the noise; otherwise, it will confuse the hell out of you.

The only thing I did right was to cut my losses while it was small - 3%

2008Jan25

Keep you eyes on VMW.

Better yet, nibble at little at 80 and was for break of support at 77 or 73 depending on your risk tolerance.

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/01/vmware-initiati.html

Significant Numbers To Watch

DJIA:
11634-Support, the 1/22/08 low
13563-Resistance, the 12/26/07 high
13050-50-day simple moving average
13367-200-day simple moving average


S&P 500:
1270-Support, the 1/23/08 low
1523-Resistance, the 12/11/07 high
1440-50-day simple moving average
1487-200-day simple moving average


NASDAQ:
2202-Support, the 1/23/08 low
2734-Resistance, the 12/11/07 high
2577-50-day simple moving average
2612-200-day simple moving average

2008Jan24

I want you to do something for me.

Look at the following stocks: CF, POT, AGU, TNH

Tell me what does the 1-day chart look like.

Tell me what the 200dma is.

What was the low of the day?

POT reports earning before open.

2008Jan23

I present you with the weekly chart of AAPL

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62665998724

RSI > 30 ; therefore, the stock is not yet oversold

OBV is going down

MACD crossed down

You can play the bounce, but I would not hold too long.

2008Jan22

Nasdaq Historical Bear Markets

The Nasdaq is now down 18.37% from highs reached on 10/31/07. A bear market occurs when the price declines by 20% or more after previously rallying by 20% or more. While it's not yet a foregone conclusion that the Nasdaq will turn into a bear, it's getting very close, and investors should be prepared for what the typical bear looks like. Since the Nasdaq index was created back in 1971, it has suffered 13 bear markets. The average bear has been 216 days long for an average decline of 36.51%. Only 4 out of the 13 bears saw declines of less than 30%, and 4 bears saw losses of more than 40%.

source: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/01/nasdaq-historic.html

Please visit the site and look at the data.

The Nasdaq has been declining since 10/31/2007 for 79 days down 18.37%

==========

Here is the chart for DOW

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12888605981

There is no bottom -- only support or broken support.

1 -- see how the DOW broke below Nov low 12,750
2 -- see how the DOW broke below Aug low 12,500

Now, will 12,000 hold? If it does not hold then it won't be the bottom.

For goodness sakes, I don't want Z to be wrong. I actually want him to be right.

However, I am not going to accept it as gospel that 12,000 is the bottom.

Let's just say that 12,000 is the bottom and DOW rallies. How high do you think it will go before there is resistance?

Look at how far below the 200dma the DOW is. Just looks ugly to me.

2008Jan18

Based on today's close, the chart shows profit and loss for Feb22C based on movement in the stock price.

Interesting to note the probability of getting the the price objective.

Do I dare?

The market is near bottom.

Look at the charts for the VIX.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24VIX

2008Jan17

Worth wathing -- http://www.cnbc.com/id/22687212

2008Jan16

There is nothing to write about except this market is brutal.

solar, ag, tech have all had fast and huge run up and now they are falling at the same rate.

The recovery won't be as rapid because the economy looks bad and is affecting the global market.

I got trapped in the hold and hope mode and bleeding to death daily.

2008Jan15

The sentiment has changed quickly and only after a day.

Over the weekend everyone was looking to short and now everyone has forgotten how to short.

I am still sticking to my theme and that is to sell the rally.

2008Jan14

HUGE RANT !!!

beanieville —35 minutes ago with 0 points
Btw, i had the opportunity to short JASO via puts near the close today, as an overnite daytrade. I didn't have the time to announce it to you folks and i wasn't sure if i should, being that it's a friday alot of news can come out in the weekend. But i took the bait anyways. If it trades higher at the open on monday without any news, you can join me.

fortune8 —11 minutes ago with 1 point
That's just absolutely wrong of you beanie !!!

You know that I have been itching to short JASO and have posted here for the last two days.

It's would have been nice of you to drop a little hint before and not after the fact.

I am dinging your point on that one !!!

2008Jan11

Posted January 9th 2008

"Buy when there are sellers and sell when there are buyers."

That is an old saying but still applies today. Of course it works best in hindsight when it can do little practical good. However, if you watch and read charts you can 'see' and 'feel' when the sellers are in charge and when the buyers are in control. At this time the sellers have the upper hand. Every time the market tries to stage a rally sellers flood in driving stock prices back down. At some point, and we are approaching that point, the trend will change. Until then be cautious.

Stock prices are looking more and more attractive. Valuations are excellent in many stocks. World growth is strong and likely to stay that way. It is our economy that is suspect. We are going to get more bad news in the financial sector, but look for hints of good news in that area. That might be our first signal that the end of the bear phase of the market is near.

We will likely get a short term bounce up, but it might be a 'Bear Trap'. That's a short term bull market to get people in stocks only to have the sellers take charge again.

We need a better picture on the economy before any strong moves should be made.

Good Trading

Steve Peasley

source: http://investtalk.com/marketcommentaries.asp

2008Jan10

I am planning to sell the rally and take profit on some of the stocks I own: VMW, RIMM, AGU, MELI, etc...

I normally don't like to pound my own chest, but I just feel compelled to do it time.

fortune8 —01/07/2008 07:13 PM with 3 points
ski,

I think STP can close below 70 by options expiration. As a matter of fact, put in 25% BUY STP @ 66

http://fade-me.disqus.com/2008jan08/#comment-64794

At the same time, I don't like to cherry pick either.

So you all know that I took a loss on CIEN(c), VMW(c), AKS, SIGM.

I am still holding SIGM for longterm and looking to buy back SYNA.

I decided to buy AGU,MELI AH. Just looking at the charts, it is hovering around 21ema.

2008Jan09

I just dont have enough money to buy everything I want.

I wanted to believe in RIMM and it make a monkey out of me. This sucker has been falling for 8 days straight now. I just know when I sell the stock will run up. As you can see, I have not learned to control 100% of my emotion.

Hopefully you understand by now the importance of protecting profit and loss, e.g. AAPL and the market. If you are trading and cannot watch your stocks, then STOP will help you greatly.

2008Jan08

I am flabbergasted beanie may be charging $400-$2,000 per month for subscription. My suggestion is to pay yourself first before you pay anyone. Find a good mutual fund and put the money there. Look at CGMFX

I missed lisa and scibby was graceful today. If you remember, I told you that scibby will have his day. I am disappointed missing STP short at 90.

Protect your profit and your capital. Just because I have a greater pain tolerance, it does not mean you should too since my situation may be different than yours.

2008Jan07

Becareful what you wish for because it may come true.

I will be posting some links to charts.

Please pay attention as some charts are daily and some are weekly.

2008Jan04

Absolutely terrible play on CIEN calls as the stock dove off the cliff !!!

Good thing it was only $500.

MELI: I would buy some at 62; however, not sure if it will get there.

VMW: This stock is testing my patience.

Why won't it just break 83 already?

SYNA: If the stock closed below 40, then it means that I am wrong.

SINA: Hopefully you did some nibbling today.

AKNS: Lowballing this stock for a buy.

“Paper” Trading is Pointless

I came across the above post and could not agree more.

If you are having difficulties with the market, reduce your trade dollar until you get the hang of it.

This is why I recommend www.zecco.com because they offer 10 free trades/month.

This gives you a chance to learn without incurring large commission fees.

Shameless Plug: If you decide to sign up with zecco and would like for me to refer you so that I get $50, then leave me your email.

I'll Be Back

2008Jan03

SIGM (still own it and I let it slipped away)

SYNA (50% CALL position remaining, 100% stock)

Stock closed above 4/8 ema today. I am hoping to test 21ema@46.81.

VMW (100% CALL and stock)

Stock is OVERSOLD. It needs to stay above 83 on the close.

JASO

Shorted this sucker AH.

2008Jan02

I am here all alone because I lost my wager not to post at beanie if QQQQ closed below 51.50. In the last 20 minutes, the QQQQ did a nose dive. Now I owe ShawnRain a latte. If you see him, please let him know I am looking for him so that I can pay my debt.

Remeber to always use some type of protective stop or take profit. I am a great example of taking profit too soon, but it's better to have capital gain than capital loss.

Keeping any eye on SYNA, VMW, JASO, STP.

2008 MadStocks.com Contest: Stock of the Year

Kass' 20 Surprises for 2008

Click title to read.